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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 24, 2017 17:01:28 GMT
Win out and you are 100% in Alabama SEC 8-0 Penn St B10 7-0 Georgia SEC 7-0 TCU B12 7-0 Wisconsin B10 7-0 Miami FL ACC 6-0
Win out and you are 99% in. All 4 of these teams played a high end OOC game and get the benefit of a CCG that should keep them ahead of ND NC State ACC 6-1 Since they have ND on their schedule they are probably at 99.9% in if they win Ohio St B10 6-1 Lost to OU early but appear to be rolling now Clemson ACC 6-1 Auburn will continue to carry a lot of weight if the can knock off UGA or Bama Oklahoma B12 Ohio State win is huge but they seem to have a few broken parts at the moment
Win out and their chances are very good. Committee puts a fair amount of emphasis on Conference Champions when comparing teams with the same amount of losses. ND will come up on the short end in most of those comparison. Notre Dame FBSI 6-1
If ND takes a dive then they control their destiny. Until then they will need some help Oklahoma St B12 6-1 Virginia Tech ACC 6-1 Michigan St B10 6-1 PAC 12 shoots themselves in the foot again. Both top contenders opted to play Nobody U in the OOC and will pay a price with any team above that has the same number of losses Washington P12 6-1 Washington St P12 7-1
Both these teams didn't just shoot themselves in the foot but pretty much blew off their leg. Well at least USF did. If you want to make it to the CFP then get some upper end P5 schools on the schedule. It will take a total collapse from the above teams for either one of these to make it. UCF AAC 6-0 They did have Maryland and GT but GT ended getting cancelled South Florida AAC 7-0 They were pretty much done before the season started
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Post by Bevo on Oct 24, 2017 17:36:55 GMT
LOL you're smoking crack again. If Notre Dame finishes with wins over:
NC St Wake FOrest @ Miami Navy @ Stanford,
They will be IN. Unless, maybe... there are three undefeated Conf Champs (B1G, TCU, BAMA/UGA) If THAT happens, they might lose out to a 1 loss Conf Champ like Clemson.
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Post by jameshowell on Oct 24, 2017 17:47:02 GMT
Pretty good analysis. An 11-1 Notre Dame with only a one-point loss to Georgia and the toughest schedule in the nation would be ahead of a one loss Big 12 champion, but would likely be behind a one loss Georgia, especially if that loss was a close loss to Alabama in the SEC CG. They would also be ahead of a one loss ACC champ with the possible exception of Clemson (that comparison would be very close).
I don't see any reasonable scenario where the Pac 12 gets a team in. The Apple Cup winner is the only team that can finish with less than two losses and they would have to win every other game including the CCG. Even then, they would be a long shot and need a LOT of help.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 24, 2017 17:57:06 GMT
LOL you're smoking crack again. If Notre Dame finishes with wins over: NC St Wake FOrest @ Miami Navy @ Stanford, They will be IN. Unless, maybe... there are three undefeated Conf Champs (B1G, TCU, BAMA/UGA) If THAT happens, they might lose out to a 1 loss Conf Champ like Clemson. Ohio State has #2Penn St #18 Michigan St, Michigan, Iowa, #5 Wisconsin Oklahoma has #4 TCU #22 WVU #11 OK St and #4 Again maybe If both those teams win out and they have a CCG under their belts. Then look at it from the end of the season perspective: tOSU would likely have 2 wins over teams in the final top 10. Maybe 1 loss vs a team in the top 10. Oklahoma will likely have 2 wins over teams in the top 10 as well. Notre Dames only game vs a team in the final top 10 would be a loss to UGA the only other team that has a legitamate shot at staying in the top 10 is Miami. Pretty sure I'm not the one smoking crack on this one.
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Post by jameshowell on Oct 24, 2017 17:57:14 GMT
Probable pecking order:
1) an undefeated Alabama or Georgia 2) an undefeated Penn State or Wisconsin 3) an undefeated Miami 4) an undefeated TCU 5) a one loss Clemson 6) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (SEC champion) 7) a one loss Ohio State 8) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (loss in SEC CG) 9) a one loss Notre Dame 10) a one loss Washington or Washington State 11) a one loss B12 champion
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Post by jameshowell on Oct 24, 2017 18:10:49 GMT
change
5) a one loss ACC champion other than Miami (Miami as a one loss champ would be between #7 and #8)
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Post by Bevo on Oct 24, 2017 18:48:32 GMT
LOL you're smoking crack again. If Notre Dame finishes with wins over: NC St Wake FOrest @ Miami Navy @ Stanford, They will be IN. Unless, maybe... there are three undefeated Conf Champs (B1G, TCU, BAMA/UGA) If THAT happens, they might lose out to a 1 loss Conf Champ like Clemson. Ohio State has #2Penn St #18 Michigan St, Michigan, Iowa, #5 Wisconsin Oklahoma has #4 TCU #22 WVU #11 OK St and #4 Again maybe If both those teams win out and they have a CCG under their belts. Then look at it from the end of the season perspective: tOSU would likely have 2 wins over teams in the final top 10. Maybe 1 loss vs a team in the top 10. Oklahoma will likely have 2 wins over teams in the top 10 as well. Notre Dames only game vs a team in the final top 10 would be a loss to UGA the only other team that has a legitamate shot at staying in the top 10 is Miami. Pretty sure I'm not the one smoking crack on this one. Ouch... my crack is smoking! Good points... of course, MUCH football to be played yet. As you point out, ND likely has the easiest path. EVERYONE needs to WIN!
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 24, 2017 19:28:54 GMT
Probable pecking order: 1) an undefeated Alabama or Georgia 2) an undefeated Penn State or Wisconsin 3) an undefeated Miami 4) an undefeated TCU 5) a one loss Clemson 6) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (SEC champion) 7) a one loss Ohio State 8) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (loss in SEC CG) 9) a one loss Notre Dame 10) a one loss Washington or Washington State 11) a one loss B12 champion Certainly reasonable.
Assuming these to be moving in synch, 3 and 5 would be mutually exclusive...that would mean Clemson would have defeated Miami in the ACCCG. I'd be okay with that.
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Post by bluehen on Oct 24, 2017 21:01:31 GMT
Top tens, top this, top that, ranked ranked ranked ranked ranked ......... Nobody thinks outside of the mythical box...its ingrained...probably why we'll never have a championship playoff.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 24, 2017 21:09:52 GMT
Probable pecking order: 1) an undefeated Alabama or Georgia 2) an undefeated Penn State or Wisconsin 3) an undefeated Miami 4) an undefeated TCU 5) a one loss Clemson 6) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (SEC champion) 7) a one loss Ohio State 8) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (loss in SEC CG) 9) a one loss Notre Dame 10) a one loss Washington or Washington State 11) a one loss B12 champion Only changes that I would make is to switch 10 and 11 and would also put a one loss Oklahoma at number 8.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 24, 2017 21:19:51 GMT
Top tens, top this, top that, ranked ranked ranked ranked ranked ......... Nobody thinks outside of the mythical box...its ingrained...probably why we'll never have a championship playoff. I get the whole argument but you have to admit that what we have now is light years better than what we had in the BCS era. Not a whole lot we can do as the NCAA put this on our dinner plate and we can either chose to eat it or spit it out. The four team format has clearly made this far more inclusive than the BCS format. Towards the end of the BCS era we essentially had one SEC team (maybe 2) and one other team from the P5. Had the BCS still remained in tact this still would have been the case.
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 24, 2017 22:37:47 GMT
Almost everyone is entering a tough multi-game stretch. With the exception on Whisky, whose SOS will only get worse over the next 2 weeks. Their two wins over teams with winning record are 4-3 Northwestern and 4-3 FAU. Wisconsin at #5 in the AP is too high, I expet the Cte. will place them around 10 in the forst CFP ranking.
The Nittany Lions head to Columbus to face a revenge-minded Ohio State team that still has everything to play for. I think tOSU linebacker play will be the key to this game and keeping Barkley from breaking off long runs.
I’m keeping an eye on the cocktail party this week because you never really know what will happen when the Gators and Bulldogs get together.
The Frogs held helpless Kansas to the fewest total yards we’ve seen in decades from a Power 5 team, but they should get a much stiffer test this weekend when they travel to suddenly surging Iowa State.
All eyes are on Kelly Bryant as Clemson’s season currently hinges on the health of its starting quarterback.
Miami’s last three wins have come by a total of 13 points, so the Hurricanes are certainly walking a fine line lately. This week’s bout with the embarrassment that is North Carolina should give them a break, but the back-to-back home dates with Virginia Tech and Notre Dame follow.
The gauntlet continues with No. 14 NC State coming to town. If Notre Dame can knock off the Wolfpack, that would likely give them three wins over ranked teams and garner a lot of love in the first CFP poll.
The Sooners managed to pull out yet another one-score game against Kansas State, but allowing 34.5 points per game in L4 is troubling considering their next three opponents love to score points - TT, OkSt, and TCU.
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 24, 2017 22:38:50 GMT
Top tens, top this, top that, ranked ranked ranked ranked ranked ......... Nobody thinks outside of the mythical box...its ingrained...probably why we'll never have a championship playoff. I get the whole argument but you have to admit that what we have now is light years better than what we had in the BCS era. Not a whole lot we can do as the NCAA put this on our dinner plate and we can either chose to eat it or spit it out. The four team format has clearly made this far more inclusive than the BCS format. Towards the end of the BCS era we essentially had one SEC team (maybe 2) and one other team from the P5. Had the BCS still remained in tact this still would have been the case. yeah, every week is basically a single-elimination playoff game. Playing!
No undefeated P5 champ or a 12-1 P5 champ has been left out.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 25, 2017 12:26:15 GMT
Almost everyone is entering a tough multi-game stretch. With the exception on Whisky, whose SOS will only get worse over the next 2 weeks. Their two wins over teams with winning record are 4-3 Northwestern and 4-3 FAU. Wisconsin at #5 in the AP is too high, I expet the Cte. will place them around 10 in the forst CFP ranking. The Nittany Lions head to Columbus to face a revenge-minded Ohio State team that still has everything to play for. I think tOSU linebacker play will be the key to this game and keeping Barkley from breaking off long runs. I’m keeping an eye on the cocktail party this week because you never really know what will happen when the Gators and Bulldogs get together. The Frogs held helpless Kansas to the fewest total yards we’ve seen in decades from a Power 5 team, but they should get a much stiffer test this weekend when they travel to suddenly surging Iowa State. All eyes are on Kelly Bryant as Clemson’s season currently hinges on the health of its starting quarterback. Miami’s last three wins have come by a total of 13 points, so the Hurricanes are certainly walking a fine line lately. This week’s bout with the embarrassment that is North Carolina should give them a break, but the back-to-back home dates with Virginia Tech and Notre Dame follow. The gauntlet continues with No. 14 NC State coming to town. If Notre Dame can knock off the Wolfpack, that would likely give them three wins over ranked teams and garner a lot of love in the first CFP poll. The Sooners managed to pull out yet another one-score game against Kansas State, but allowing 34.5 points per game in L4 is troubling considering their next three opponents love to score points - TT, OkSt, and TCU. Good summation tiger. This is exactly what makes college football great. These all include games that include teams in the playoff mix that essentially serve as playoff games. The PSU tOSU game does not get much bigger. tOSU loses and they are out. PSU loses and they are clearly on the outside looking in.
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Post by Hero on Oct 25, 2017 16:05:58 GMT
Probable pecking order: 1) an undefeated Alabama or Georgia 2) an undefeated Penn State or Wisconsin 3) an undefeated Miami 4) an undefeated TCU 5) a one loss Clemson 6) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (SEC champion) 7) a one loss Ohio State 8) a one loss Alabama or Georgia (loss in SEC CG) 9) a one loss Notre Dame 10) a one loss Washington or Washington State 11) a one loss B12 champion I would move ND to 5. The thought of ND in the playoffs has to make the money men rub their chubby little hands together.
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