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Post by bluehen on Nov 6, 2018 22:49:25 GMT
That would probably result in a 47-3 Longhorn win, right ?
No, probably more like a 55-54 loss.
Playing a team like UCF in a bowl game is the worst nightmare for a P5 school. It's a "NO WIN" situation. You can't gain any credit for winning, but you get immortalized forever if you lose.
Ehhh,,it might be more of a no win situation for the G5. Lose and it proves you don't belong. Win and it proves the P5 wasn't really trying.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 7, 2018 23:22:10 GMT
In the event that Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan all win out, and a one-loss Georgia upsets previously unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game (unlikely of course, but for the purposes of this discussion), which of those five teams is left out?
Would the committee dare drop the Crimson Tide - the dominant No. 1 darling from the get-go - out of the Playoff entirely?
One would think a 13-0 Clemson would probably move up to the No. 1 spot, and Georgia would assuredly slide somewhere into the top 4 ahead of the Alabama team it beat, but what of the other three? Notre Dame would be undefeated but would have to be docked in some fashion for not playing in a conference championship, yet could you imagine the hysteria if an Irish team without a loss were left out entirely?
But then again, you would think their head-to-head win over Michigan would have to give them the edge between those two. Although, would they really kick out a Big Ten champion Michigan with just one forgivable loss to include a Crimson Tide team that didn’t win its conference?
What complicates it further is that we are talking about all MASSIVE name-brand programs, so there would be no easy team to kick out because of some kind of perceived lack of pedigree. The whole thing is making my head spin, but it would be fascinating to see.
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Post by jameshowell on Nov 7, 2018 23:42:12 GMT
Michigan would have to be behind an undefeated Notre Dame (who beat them) and a one-loss Alabama would have to be behind a one-loss Georgia team who just beat them and was conference champ
Undefeated Clemson would be #1; undefeated Notre Dame would be #2.
Michigan would likely be #3 and ahead of Georgia due to the loss being to an undefeated team in the first game of the season by seven points compared to a mid-season loss to a (at least) two loss team by 20 points.
Since Georgia would have to be ahead of Alabama, that puts Georgia at #4.
#1 Clemson vs. #4 Georgia - Orange Bowl
#2 - Notre Dame vs. #3 Michigan - Cotton Bowl
Alabama would head to the Sugar Bowl
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Post by Bevo on Nov 8, 2018 14:37:50 GMT
Michigan would have to be behind an undefeated Notre Dame (who beat them) and a one-loss Alabama would have to be behind a one-loss Georgia team who just beat them and was conference champ Undefeated Clemson would be #1; undefeated Notre Dame would be #2. Michigan would likely be #3 and ahead of Georgia due to the loss being to an undefeated team in the first game of the season by seven points compared to a mid-season loss to a (at least) two loss team by 20 points. Since Georgia would have to be ahead of Alabama, that puts Georgia at #4. #1 Clemson vs. #4 Georgia - Orange Bowl #2 - Notre Dame vs. #3 Michigan - Cotton Bowl Alabama would head to the Sugar Bowl LOL.
That's the logical way to look at it.... But, the CFP Committee "does their own thang".
I could see Bama sneaking in there, somehow... and then, winning the whole thing... AGAIN.
Still a little ball to be played though.
PLAYING comes before VOTING. ;-)
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 8, 2018 15:01:46 GMT
Michigan would have to be behind an undefeated Notre Dame (who beat them) and a one-loss Alabama would have to be behind a one-loss Georgia team who just beat them and was conference champ Undefeated Clemson would be #1; undefeated Notre Dame would be #2. Michigan would likely be #3 and ahead of Georgia due to the loss being to an undefeated team in the first game of the season by seven points compared to a mid-season loss to a (at least) two loss team by 20 points. Since Georgia would have to be ahead of Alabama, that puts Georgia at #4. #1 Clemson vs. #4 Georgia - Orange Bowl #2 - Notre Dame vs. #3 Michigan - Cotton Bowl Alabama would head to the Sugar Bowl LOL.
That's the logical way to look at it.... But, the CFP Committee "does their own thang".
I could see Bama sneaking in there, somehow... and then, winning the whole thing... AGAIN.
Still a little ball to be played though.
PLAYING comes before VOTING. ;-)
Like Dabo says, the most important game on the schedule is the NEXT one.
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Post by jameshowell on Nov 9, 2018 12:47:02 GMT
A more interesting scenario. Michigan and Notre Dame win out, Alabama and Georgia win out regular season and Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CG (all as above), but Clemson drops a game, but wins the ACC CG.
#1 Notre Dame #2 Michigan #3 Georgia
Now you have to compare Clemson and Alabama, both with late season losses.
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Post by doc on Nov 9, 2018 13:37:06 GMT
A more interesting scenario. Michigan and Notre Dame win out, Alabama and Georgia win out regular season and Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CG (all as above), but Clemson drops a game, but wins the ACC CG. #1 Notre Dame #2 Michigan #3 Georgia Now you have to compare Clemson and Alabama, both with late season losses. I think that's more like an implausible scenario than an interesting one.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 9, 2018 16:11:47 GMT
A more interesting scenario. Michigan and Notre Dame win out, Alabama and Georgia win out regular season and Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CG (all as above), but Clemson drops a game, but wins the ACC CG. #1 Notre Dame #2 Michigan #3 Georgia Now you have to compare Clemson and Alabama, both with late season losses. I think that's more like an implausible scenario than an interesting one. Yeah, that's probably a tail event for sure.
Clemson's win probabilities are:
BC 88.5% Duke 94.8% USCjr 94.5%
Bama's:
MSST 89.7% Citadel 99.9% Auburn 92.9% UGA 67.2%
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 9, 2018 16:23:51 GMT
Michigan would have to be behind an undefeated Notre Dame (who beat them) and a one-loss Alabama would have to be behind a one-loss Georgia team who just beat them and was conference champ Undefeated Clemson would be #1; undefeated Notre Dame would be #2. Michigan would likely be #3 and ahead of Georgia due to the loss being to an undefeated team in the first game of the season by seven points compared to a mid-season loss to a (at least) two loss team by 20 points. Since Georgia would have to be ahead of Alabama, that puts Georgia at #4. #1 Clemson vs. #4 Georgia - Orange Bowl #2 - Notre Dame vs. #3 Michigan - Cotton Bowl Alabama would head to the Sugar Bowl LOL.
That's the logical way to look at it.... But, the CFP Committee "does their own thang".
I could see Bama sneaking in there, somehow... and then, winning the whole thing... AGAIN.
Still a little ball to be played though.
PLAYING comes before VOTING. ;-)
Yep, the first thing to understand is the logic is retrofitted to justify the decision. Bama is making the playoffs so long as they finish with 1 or 0 losses.
period.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 9, 2018 16:27:57 GMT
Us crazy sandlappers:
Election results:
Dabo Swinney received 5 write-in votes for governor of SC.
Hunter Renfro received 1.
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