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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Jul 12, 2016 3:44:14 GMT
Trump leads Florida and leads significantly with Hispanics, according to JMC out today. 47-42 overall, with a +5 D sample, and a 55/43 break on women in the sample. Leads 49/36 with Hispanics. This will likely be an EC landslide. Trump may carry at least 30 states. He will carry FLA, PA and Ohio, even with Carsick stabbing him in the back constantly. Carsick controls much of OH's RNC apparatus, so work will be tough. www.scribd.com/document/318027879/Florida-Poll-7-11-16Thanks. I needed a good laugh today! In the Real Clear Politics average of Florida polls, Hillary is leading Trump by an average of 46.5% to 42.8%. Hillary leads Trump nationally by an average of 45.4% to 40.9%. Trump has been losing consistently in the polls to the weakest and most corrupt candidate imaginable. Real Clear Politics: www.realclearpolitics.com/Quinnipiac: www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06212016_Sfw34kbm.pdf
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 12, 2016 22:48:44 GMT
Trump leads Florida and leads significantly with Hispanics, according to JMC out today. 47-42 overall, with a +5 D sample, and a 55/43 break on women in the sample. Leads 49/36 with Hispanics. This will likely be an EC landslide. Trump may carry at least 30 states. He will carry FLA, PA and Ohio, even with Carsick stabbing him in the back constantly. Carsick controls much of OH's RNC apparatus, so work will be tough. www.scribd.com/document/318027879/Florida-Poll-7-11-16Thanks. I needed a good laugh today! In the Real Clear Politics average of Florida polls, Hillary is leading Trump by an average of 46.5% to 42.8%. Hillary leads Trump nationally by an average of 45.4% to 40.9%. Trump has been losing consistently in the polls to the weakest and most corrupt candidate imaginable. Real Clear Politics: www.realclearpolitics.com/Quinnipiac: www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06212016_Sfw34kbm.pdf
big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/FloridaPollingResults.pdf Trump leads in this FLA poll as well. Third FLA poll lead in as many days.
Trump has a small but consistent lead in FLA at the moment, it would appear.
Hillary is dropping and Trump is rising, the media is worried about Hillary.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Jul 13, 2016 1:45:05 GMT
Good grief. You are so deep in the tank for Trump that you are blinded by reality. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is leading Trump in the average of polls by 2.0% in Florida, and nationally by 4.5%. Her lead over Trump nationally has been holding steady, which is astonishing considering the severe dressing down she received from FBI Director Comey. Hillary is easily the weakest and most beatable Democrat candidate of my lifetime, and yet she is leading Trump. RCP projects Clinton is "solid", "likely" or "leaning" in states with 210 electoral votes, while Trump is "solid", "likely" or "leaning" in states with 164 electoral votes. That leaves 164 electoral votes in states that RCP deems "toss ups". 538 total electors, 270 to win. Clinton would need to win 60 of the 164 tossups (36.6%); Trump 106 (64.6%): www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.htmlReal Clear Politics tracks 9 key battleground states, with 135 of the 164 toss up votes. Clinton is leading Trump in 8 of these 9, including Florida, with 119 electoral votes. Trump is leading in Georgia, with 16 electoral votes. Pennsylvania: 20; Clinton currently leads by 2.3% Florida: 29; Clinton currently leads by 2.0% Ohio: 18; Clinton currently leads by 2.5% Colorado: 9; Clinton currently leads by 4.0% Iowa: 6; Clinton currently leads by 4.7% Virginia: 18; Clinton currently leads by 4.0% North Carolina: 15; Clinton currently leads by 0.7% Georgia: 16; Trump currently leads by 4.2% New Hampshire: 4; Clinton currently leads by 2.7% The next 6 weeks should be fairly predictable. Trump should benefit from a post-convention bounce of 3-5 points. That could be sufficient to overcome Clinton's current national lead of 4.5 points. However, after that, Clinton should also receive a post-convention bounce of 3-5 points. We probably won't have a good idea of how the race is actually tracking until 3-4 weeks after the Democrats convention. So, if history holds true to form, the polls probably won't mean much over the next 6 weeks.
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Post by Bevo on Jul 13, 2016 1:50:31 GMT
NBC poll today has Shrillary down to a 3 pt lead... 47-44.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Jul 13, 2016 2:27:44 GMT
NBC poll today has Shrillary down to a 3 pt lead... 47-44. And other polls show her with a larger lead. It is astonishing that she hasn't lost her lead totally after the FBI Director exposed her long litany of lies concerning her emails. In any event, all polls are relatively irrelevant and meaningless for the next 6 weeks.
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Post by Bevo on Jul 13, 2016 2:30:18 GMT
NBC poll today has Shrillary down to a 3 pt lead... 47-44. In any event, all polls are relatively irrelevant and meaningless for the next 6 weeks. agreed... a few weeks after the conventions, I'll start paying attention to the polls.. until then, I just can't get too excited about them.
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Post by Bevo on Jul 13, 2016 12:31:56 GMT
Heads are exploding on Morning Joe today, as they discuss a new Quinnipiac poll showing Trump leading in key battleground states. In Pensylvania and Florida, and tied in Ohio.
Clearly, Comey's 'exoneration' had some affect.
I also think Trump has figured out a key strategy: SHUT UP! The more people hear Hillary, the lower she goes. The less Trump says, the better he does. I hope Hillary outspends him 10-1.
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 13, 2016 12:57:18 GMT
In any event, all polls are relatively irrelevant and meaningless for the next 6 weeks. agreed... a few weeks after the conventions, I'll start paying attention to the polls.. until then, I just can't get too excited about them. Yep. Won't get serious until the first debate.
Besides, you get lost in averages, especially of national polls (its dilutive) and many of those polls only talk to registered voters, not likely voters.
Hillary is losing and they know it. They are trying to use older, national polls pre-Comey to prop her up.
But you are right - Hillary has outspent Trump by 50-75 million and she's still losing.
Once the R's coalesce, Trump will rise significantly. OH should be an easy win, but Carsick will force a fight where it's not necessary.
In any event, Trump will need a huge margin to offset the fraud vote.
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 13, 2016 12:59:13 GMT
Heads are exploding on Morning Joe today, as they discuss a new Quinnipiac poll showing Trump leading in key battleground states. In Pensylvania and Florida, and tied in Ohio. Clearly, Comey's 'exoneration' had some affect. I also think Trump has figured out a key strategy: SHUT UP! The more people hear Hillary, the lower she goes. The less Trump says, the better he does. I hope Hillary outspends him 10-1. Hillary is following the Jeb! playbook, the more ads she runs, the worse she does.
Lynch's 75 non-answers yesterday didn't help, either.
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 13, 2016 13:45:01 GMT
Trump leading in Iowa as well, 44/42 - within the MOE.
Update: today's Yougov/ Economist poll shows Clinton 40 / Trump 37, but that has a D+15 oversample.
TRaditional presidential elections have a roughly a D+6 skew, so this would equate to a Trump +4 if corrected to historical election parameters.
The key point is they needed a D+15 just to get her to 40%....and Trump is just getting started.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Jul 13, 2016 23:28:05 GMT
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 14, 2016 13:08:51 GMT
Also a big data point in the Iowa poll:
Trump leads significantly among the < 50 crowd, 51 - 32.
Even Limbaugh is now saying effectively you have only 2 choices - you are voting for Hillary or Trump.
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 14, 2016 13:41:23 GMT
NBC poll today has Shrillary down to a 3 pt lead... 47-44. It's worse news for Hillary if you look at the 4-person spreads in the Q polls - Libs and Greens are taking votes from HIllary
Trump / Clinton / Johnson / Stein FL 41 / 36 / 7 / 4 OH 37 / 36 / 7 / 6 PA 40 / 34 / 9 / 3
Hillary's ceiling is somewhere in the high 30s.
She will have to spend money getting rid of / minimizing Johnson and Stein.
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Post by Bevo on Jul 14, 2016 14:00:40 GMT
The NeverTrumpers still aren't giving up. The rules committee is meeting today. They claim to have the votes to free delegates to vote as they like on their FIRST ballot.
A recent court ruling said states CANNOT force voting rules on a political party.
It just MIGHT happen.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen releases a poll giving Trump a BIG lead in a nationwide poll.
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Post by tigercpa on Jul 14, 2016 14:56:43 GMT
Good grief. You are so deep in the tank for Trump that you are blinded by reality. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is leading Trump in the average of polls by 2.0% in Florida, and nationally by 4.5%. Her lead over Trump nationally has been holding steady, which is astonishing considering the severe dressing down she received from FBI Director Comey. Hillary is easily the weakest and most beatable Democrat candidate of my lifetime, and yet she is leading Trump. RCP projects Clinton is "solid", "likely" or "leaning" in states with 210 electoral votes, while Trump is "solid", "likely" or "leaning" in states with 164 electoral votes. That leaves 164 electoral votes in states that RCP deems "toss ups". 538 total electors, 270 to win. Clinton would need to win 60 of the 164 tossups (36.6%); Trump 106 (64.6%): www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.htmlReal Clear Politics tracks 9 key battleground states, with 135 of the 164 toss up votes. Clinton is leading Trump in 8 of these 9, including Florida, with 119 electoral votes. Trump is leading in Georgia, with 16 electoral votes. Pennsylvania: 20; Clinton currently leads by 2.3% Florida: 29; Clinton currently leads by 2.0% Ohio: 18; Clinton currently leads by 2.5% Colorado: 9; Clinton currently leads by 4.0% Iowa: 6; Clinton currently leads by 4.7% Virginia: 18; Clinton currently leads by 4.0% North Carolina: 15; Clinton currently leads by 0.7% Georgia: 16; Trump currently leads by 4.2% New Hampshire: 4; Clinton currently leads by 2.7% The next 6 weeks should be fairly predictable. Trump should benefit from a post-convention bounce of 3-5 points. That could be sufficient to overcome Clinton's current national lead of 4.5 points. However, after that, Clinton should also receive a post-convention bounce of 3-5 points. We probably won't have a good idea of how the race is actually tracking until 3-4 weeks after the Democrats convention. So, if history holds true to form, the polls probably won't mean much over the next 6 weeks.
When you dig into some of these, you can see how flawed they are:
The Reuters / IPSOS poll sampling: n=1,543; D=46%, R=33%, I=12%, and was entirely an online poll. No wonder it produced a Hillary +11 result.
Another of the big limitations of using the RCP is that it averages old data.
Flawed individual pieces provide flawed averages.
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