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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 18, 2017 16:05:57 GMT
Here are the records of each conference which includes FBS games with P5 match-ups parenthesis
Pac-12: 19-7 (6 - 2 vs P5)
Big 10: 29-10 (7 - 5 vs P5)
SEC: 21-7 (5 - 6 vs P5)
ACC: 20-11 (5 - 8 vs P5)
Big 12: 14-9 (4 - 6 vs P5)
The PAC 12 looks to be the odd conference out but if it is a battle of 1 loss teams the P12 might have an edge especially if it is USC. I do think UW and WSU really hurt themselves with their schedule and will pay for it if they go up against another one loss team.
If Oklahoma wins out they will be sitting pretty but TCU will need to win out or they will have the same issues as UW and WSU if they are up against another 1 loss team.
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 18, 2017 16:08:35 GMT
Here are the records of each conference which includes FBS games with P5 match-ups parenthesis Pac-12: 19-7 (6 - 2 vs P5) Big 10: 29-10 (7 - 5 vs P5) SEC: 21-7 (5 - 6 vs P5) ACC: 20-11 (5 - 8 vs P5) Big 12: 14-9 (4 - 6 vs P5) The PAC 12 looks to be the odd conference out but if it is a battle of 1 loss teams the P12 might have an edge especially if it is USC. I do think UW and WSU really hurt themselves with their schedule and will pay for it if they go up against another one loss team. If Oklahoma wins out they will be sitting pretty but TCU will need to win out or they will have the same issues as UW and WSU if they are up against another 1 loss team. Agree - I think if Clemson gets to 12-1, they will edge out either the B12 or P12 team with 1 loss. It's slim, but I think they would.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 18, 2017 18:07:03 GMT
Here are the records of each conference which includes FBS games with P5 match-ups parenthesis Pac-12: 19-7 (6 - 2 vs P5) Big 10: 29-10 (7 - 5 vs P5) SEC: 21-7 (5 - 6 vs P5) ACC: 20-11 (5 - 8 vs P5) Big 12: 14-9 (4 - 6 vs P5) The PAC 12 looks to be the odd conference out but if it is a battle of 1 loss teams the P12 might have an edge especially if it is USC. I do think UW and WSU really hurt themselves with their schedule and will pay for it if they go up against another one loss team. If Oklahoma wins out they will be sitting pretty but TCU will need to win out or they will have the same issues as UW and WSU if they are up against another 1 loss team. Agree - I think if Clemson gets to 12-1, they will edge out either the B12 or P12 team with 1 loss. It's slim, but I think they would.
Clemson and Oklahoma can both punch their tickets as long as they win out. |
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Post by Bevo on Oct 18, 2017 19:44:34 GMT
Agree - I think if Clemson gets to 12-1, they will edge out either the B12 or P12 team with 1 loss. It's slim, but I think they would.
Clemson and Oklahoma can both punch their tickets as long as they win out. So can Notre Dame.... and TCU, and Penn State, etc... But, of course... not all of these teams will win out. |
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Post by doc on Oct 18, 2017 19:57:29 GMT
TCU can't win out if Oklahoma does. Penn State or Ohio State will be in should one of them win out. I think Clemson is in if they win out. I don't think there will be any PAC 12 teams with less than 2 losses but I also think Stanford will take down ND if no one else does.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 18, 2017 20:41:10 GMT
Clemson and Oklahoma can both punch their tickets as long as they win out. So can Notre Dame.... and TCU, and Penn State, etc... But, of course... not all of these teams will win out. When looking at teams that have one loss at the end of the season, there are no guarantees at the moment for ND or TCU. Chances are this will change as more teams get knocked off. At the moment, all these teams control their destiny: tOSU, Penn St, Oklahoma, TCU, UGA, Clemson, and BAMA. Everyone else needs some help. |
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 18, 2017 21:21:51 GMT
So can Notre Dame.... and TCU, and Penn State, etc... But, of course... not all of these teams will win out. When looking at teams that have one loss at the end of the season, there are no guarantees at the moment for ND or TCU. Chances are this will change as more teams get knocked off. At the moment, all these teams control their destiny: tOSU, Penn St, Oklahoma, TCU, UGA, Clemson, and BAMA. Everyone else needs some help. Clemson doesn't...it needs Syracuse to lose a game, right now SYR has the tie breaker H2H if both finish 7-1 in conf.
NC state also in the mix at 4-0 in conf. If Clemson beats NCST, and SYR wins out in conf, all 3 finish at 7-1 in conf.
All 3 would be 7-1/5-1/2-0 in that scenario.
If I recall, ACC has hired an outside firm to calc the tiebreaker process, once the standard tiebreakers are utilized
SYR has remaining: @ MIA, @fsu, @ LVILLE, BC, Wake - (5 conf games)
NCST has remaining: @bc, @wake, CLEM, UNC (4 games in conf)
CLEM has remaining: GT, @ncst, FSU (3 games in conf)
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Post by Bevo on Oct 18, 2017 23:35:33 GMT
So can Notre Dame.... and TCU, and Penn State, etc... But, of course... not all of these teams will win out. When looking at teams that have one loss at the end of the season, there are no guarantees at the moment for ND or TCU. Chances are this will change as more teams get knocked off. At the moment, all these teams control their destiny: tOSU, Penn St, Oklahoma, TCU, UGA, Clemson, and BAMA. Everyone else needs some help. I disagree.... If Notre Dame wins out (and, I DON'T believe they will)... their schedule will have been good enough to compete with ANYONE.. even, Clemson. Plus, they're "Notre Dame"... they win all ties, because of God and stuff....  |
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 19, 2017 0:07:55 GMT
The good news for Washington and Clemson is that of the 6 school ahead of them in terms of CFP probabilities, 5 are from 2 conferences.
SOme of those teams will see their odds to make it drop as the season progresses.
I haven't seen too many scenarios where Bama and UGA make it, or OSU, PSU and/or Wisconsin make it.
It's nice when the regular season is essentially an inclusive playoff....every loss matters.
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Post by Hero on Oct 19, 2017 0:44:50 GMT
I think the only thing that has changed for Clemson is margin for error.
Sagarin has Clemson 4th.
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Post by bluehen on Oct 19, 2017 3:12:12 GMT
Here are the records of each conference which includes FBS games with P5 match-ups parenthesis Pac-12: 19-7 (6 - 2 vs P5) Big 10: 29-10 (7 - 5 vs P5) SEC: 21-7 (5 - 6 vs P5) ACC: 20-11 (5 - 8 vs P5) Big 12: 14-9 (4 - 6 vs P5) The PAC 12 looks to be the odd conference out but if it is a battle of 1 loss teams the P12 might have an edge especially if it is USC. I do think UW and WSU really hurt themselves with their schedule and will pay for it if they go up against another one loss team. If Oklahoma wins out they will be sitting pretty but TCU will need to win out or they will have the same issues as UW and WSU if they are up against another 1 loss team. In the BCS.CFP mythical era the P12 edges out the SEC in winning % vs other, so called, P5 leagues (.550 vs .549). Perception driven fans and those that buy the ESPN SEC hype probably have no clue about this fact. |
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Post by ajbuckeye on Oct 19, 2017 12:42:22 GMT
The good news for Washington and Clemson is that of the 6 school ahead of them in terms of CFP probabilities, 5 are from 2 conferences. SOme of those teams will see their odds to make it drop as the season progresses. I haven't seen too many scenarios where Bama and UGA make it, or OSU, PSU and/or Wisconsin make it. It's nice when the regular season is essentially an inclusive playoff....every loss matters. Scenarios where 2 teams from a conference make it will pretty much require at least 2 2 loss conference champs and a 2 loss ND. Yep Clemson doesn't control its own destiny until Syracuse takes another on the chin. ND won't control their destiny as long as there are 4 teams in different P5 without a loss although they do play Miami. I also don't think they get in over a 1 loss OSU or Clemson that is a conference champ. The regular season is what makes college football so great. Originally I was for a 16 team playoff but that would clearly diminish the regular season. At the moment I am good with 4 and definitely would not want it to go past 8. |
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Post by tigercpa on Oct 19, 2017 13:52:54 GMT
I think the only thing that has changed for Clemson is margin for error. Sagarin has Clemson 4th. With a win against GT (Dabo's first win as HC), he will tie Frank Howard and Danny Ford with 96 ACC wins. He will be 96-29, Ford's record as well (Ford had 4 ties ).
Howard, Ford and Dabo are all Alabama boys.
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Post by Bevo on Oct 19, 2017 14:27:33 GMT
In the BCS.CFP mythical era the P12 edges out the SEC in winning % vs other, so called, P5 leagues (.550 vs .549). Perception driven fans and those that buy the ESPN SEC hype probably have no clue about this fact. That is interesting, and somewhat surprising data Hen. Basically, they are completely even. Of course, the SEC has played 100 more games against P% teams (~33% more than the P12). So, I'd say the SEC record is actually a bit more impressive. Perhaps the "perception driven fan" is biased because of the record of the various P5 conferences in BOWL games during this same period? By that measure, the SEC is very clearly the best: SEC: 59.3% P12: 50.6% B12: 49.6% ACC: 44.4% B1G: 42.1% If a fan watches a lot of Bowl Games, where supposedly the "top teams" are playing, the SEC is very far ahead, and the B1G performance has been WOEFUL. |
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Post by EvilVodka on Oct 19, 2017 14:52:58 GMT
I think the B1G is the best conference this year...especially with Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan all up there as top teams.
The ACC has really grown leaps and bounds...it's a very deep league. What used to be just FSU and Clemson, now has several teams vying for the top. Syracuse-Miami this weekend should be a good game!
I don't know what to think about the SEC...you have the big 6 that always are doing good except for Tennessee lately (Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Florida). The rest of the SEC looks mediocre. The Mississippi schools have come down off their cloud, Texas A&M and Arkansas don't look dangerous anymore. South Carolina and Kentucky are quietly out to good starts
The Big XII has good teams...they have a good mix from top to bottom.
The PAC 12 suffers the most IMO. They have Washington, Wash St., and USC....and then there's kind of a drop off. Utah and Stanford are always good. They lack exposure though, for the league in general (I think they should expand).
I'll include the American Conference, because they always have some good teams in the top 25. South Florida, Memphis, and Navy are up there right now. It's a shame they can't get in the clubhouse
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