|
|
Post by bluehen on Oct 1, 2018 16:42:50 GMT
..on this week's plays. Looking over the opening lines some 'away ' dogs jump out for me . I typically prefer 'home' dogs ( Ark + 34 is tempting ) but......
SMU + 24 @ UCF Kentucky + 5 @ T A&M Kansas + 29 @ WVU Maryland + 17 @ Mich
What do you think and what are you looking at ? Do you only wager when you go to Vegas or weekly other places ?
|
|
|
|
Post by Bevo on Oct 2, 2018 16:35:17 GMT
Hey Hen,
I generally ONLY bet in Vegas. I have places I can bet, locally... but, it's pretty rare I ever do that. I think the last time was on Texas against USC in the BCS title game.
I'd be afraid of betting against UCF. I watched a good deal of their game against Pitt, and they were impressive. Plus, they don't slow down. They NEED to run up scores, and they know it.
I REALLY like Kentucky, again this week. Vegas (ie: general public) still has not caught up with how good this Kentucky team is. The offensive line is solid (Although, they did just lose a starter last week). Bennie Snell is a terrific RB. And, UK's defense is led by a bunch of Seniors... and one Defensive end (Josh Allen) who will be a top pick in the NFL draft. He's incredible. Should be a good game...but, I'd take the points.
I like the Maryland pick... they're a better team than people were saying coming into the year.
Never... EVER... bet on Kansas. Especially, on the road... West Virginia, IMO, is the best team in the Big 12. I expect them to lay the wood on the worst team... Kansas.
I think Arkansas +35 is a pretty good home-dog bet. The Hogs have been getting better. They're still not good, but.. they haven't been getting blown out. They have a history of getting UP for big teams. 35 is a pretty big number.
My favorite bet this week is: The UNDER in the Texas-OU game. I see it at 61. In that game, in that environment, the defenses usually play better than expected. Texas' defense has been getting stronger in every game, just as they did last year. OU lost their top two Rb's. I don't know who will win, but... I don't think it's going to be a typical Big 12 blowout.
I also like Ohio State to blow out Indiana. The Hoosiers are NOT as good as their record. The Buckeyes will get an ass-chewing from Urban this week. They'll be looking to take some hide out of a weak opponent. And, Indiana is NO MATCH for the talent in Columbus.
You might want to look at Wake Forest getting 17, at home, against Clemson. They're a pretty good team. And, Clemson seems 'out of sync' on offense. Is Lawrence even back this week? Even with him, I expected to see the Tigers struggle on offense last week, and they did. I've heard rumors of dissension on the team due to the QB situation. Sure looked like it last week.
I also like Auburn -3 @ Miss State. The barners are pretty good team, and the Bulldogs are reeling. Maybe, they were a tad over-rated... and, they've had some key injuries on defense. 3 points doesn't sound like enough to me. Auburn should have an easy time with them.
But, beware.... I SUCKED in Vegas last week betting on college teams. Made it all back and then some on the NFL. It's a tough gig, picking against the spread.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluehen on Oct 2, 2018 21:09:52 GMT
Hey, appreciate your thoughts Bevo, Check out BetUs .com. It's a bunch of fun. I think its in Costa Rica and completely legal. Been playing there for many years and found it to be very user friendly for a computer dope like me .Beware, however, of their 'bonus' deals. Stay away from that stuff. I like Kansas because they are not as pitiful as usual. Agree that WVU can slaughter them but if its something like 45-17 Kansas still covers ! WVU has a tough road game at Iowa State the following week so the key starters will likely be pulled with game in hand. So, I'll definitely go with our common pics of Kentucky and Maryland + points and pick from among Wake ( good suggestion), Ark, SMU and Kansas for a 4 team $50 parlay.
|
|
|
|
Post by Bevo on Oct 2, 2018 22:25:58 GMT
Yea. I can see what you’re saying. Kansas might not actually be the worst B12 team in Kansas the year. Been quite awhile since the position was in any doubt.
I have several friends who bet online. I think my son does some.
I just don’t think I want that kind of stress all the time. I have enough from work. I look forward to a little betting when I retire. I enjoy it, for entertainment in Vegas. Always thought it’d be a fun way to spend time... trying to figure out angles.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluehen on Oct 3, 2018 12:09:34 GMT
Yea. I can see what you’re saying. Kansas might not actually be the worst B12 team in Kansas the year. Been quite awhile since the position was in any doubt. I have several friends who bet online. I think my son does some. I just don’t think I want that kind of stress all the time. I have enough from work. I look forward to a little betting when I retire. I enjoy it, for entertainment in Vegas. Always thought it’d be a fun way to spend time... trying to figure out angles. It's definitely fun for me. If we all wagered for real ( winning and losing real $ ) we'd find out how little we really know about this sport. Been having fun with it for about 15 years and have pretty well concluded that successful CF wagering is :
50% knowledge 25% instinct 25% luck
Those very very few pro gamblers that make lucrative livings doing it have to treat it like a full time job......constantly monitoring factors like roster changes, injuries, suspensions, relative H & A advantages, individual player and coaching dissension, coaching ideologies for game planning, common opponent performance, historical trends and patterns, game time weather conditions and most importantly 'eyeball' time. These guys watch all the games they can because how teams 'play' is far more important than how teams 'sound' for successful wagering. Of course, how teams 'sound' pretty well drives the mythical system ( won't work for gambling ).
BTW, I highly recommend retirement. ....sort of remember having a job about 13 years ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by Bevo on Oct 3, 2018 15:48:59 GMT
BTW, I highly recommend retirement. ....sort of remember having a job about 13 years ago. I'm mentally ready. I'm 59, and I've been working since I was 15. Financially, I'm probably looking at 3 more years, at least. Not sure I can keep up the pace I'm on for another three years. But, maybe I switch to a less challenging role in the next year or two. We'll see. On Saturday, I head to Vienna, then Dubai, then Bahrain and Saudi Arabia... all in a week. Two days after I get home, have to go to Houston for three days. Then, the week after, I'm off to Athens for a week... followed by a week of being on a cruise ship. (Not SO bad). But, honestly... what I'd love is, a weekend in my basement watching football and/or playing with my grand-daughter. |
|
|
|
Post by bluehen on Oct 3, 2018 20:33:08 GMT
BTW, I highly recommend retirement. ....sort of remember having a job about 13 years ago. I'm mentally ready. I'm 59, and I've been working since I was 15. Financially, I'm probably looking at 3 more years, at least. Not sure I can keep up the pace I'm on for another three years. But, maybe I switch to a less challenging role in the next year or two. We'll see. On Saturday, I head to Vienna, then Dubai, then Bahrain and Saudi Arabia... all in a week. Two days after I get home, have to go to Houston for three days. Then, the week after, I'm off to Athens for a week... followed by a week of being on a cruise ship. (Not SO bad). But, honestly... what I'd love is, a weekend in my basement watching football and/or playing with my grand-daughter. 3 more years of that is going to be rough, Bevo. Good luck....And retire to the Blue Ridge Mountains..you'll love it. I retired at 58 and was lucky the US Postal service was offering early out plans. |
|
|
|
Post by Hero on Oct 4, 2018 1:31:13 GMT
BTW, I highly recommend retirement. ....sort of remember having a job about 13 years ago. But, honestly... what I'd love is, a weekend in my basement watching football and/or playing with my grand-daughter. My grand-daughter made my decision very clear and I have not regretted it for one second. I am watching baseball tonight and tomorrow night she will be spending the night with us. Today I cooked a big steak on my ceramic egg grill. Simple and wonderful. |
|
|
|
Post by Bevo on Oct 4, 2018 3:02:39 GMT
But, honestly... what I'd love is, a weekend in my basement watching football and/or playing with my grand-daughter. My grand-daughter made my decision very clear and I have not regretted it for one second. I am watching baseball tonight and tomorrow night she will be spending the night with us. Today I cooked a big steak on my ceramic egg grill. Simple and wonderful. It won't be long... I enjoy what I'm doing... time goes by VERY quickly. But, It won't be long... |
|
