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Post by Bevo on Nov 28, 2018 14:40:56 GMT
So, they did it.... Will be hard for OSU to jump OU if both win.
of course, the committee has shown such inconsistency in the past. So, anything is possible. But, it looks like the Horns are your best hope.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 28, 2018 15:51:42 GMT
Rare CFB history to lose a 20+ point blowout, and still have a chance at a national title:
2001 Nebraska (lost by 26)
2003 OU (lost by 28 in B12 Title)
2017 UGA (lost by 23)
All 3 of these were vs. Top 15 teams. Purdue .500
It’s one thing to lose a close conference game.
But to get blown out by 29, this MAY eliminate Ohio State altogether.
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Post by doc on Nov 28, 2018 16:36:02 GMT
 About as bad as losing to a 4-8 team.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Nov 28, 2018 19:21:25 GMT
So, they did it.... Will be hard for OSU to jump OU if both win. of course, the committee has shown such inconsistency in the past. So, anything is possible. But, it looks like the Horns are your best hope. It's pretty clear tOSU is on the outside looking in once again. We have been here before so at least we are acclimated to this position. Here is how I see it playing out.
Texas keeps it close in the first half then OU's offense gets on a roll and wins by 20. Clemson gets off to a sluggish start as Pitt brings a lot of energy to the game. They get worn down and eventually Clemson cruises to a victory.
tOSU dominates Northwestern but they give up 2 long scores for TD's which is enough for the committee to say audios.
Last year, it was not overly disappointing because tOSU offense seemed to be in a funk the entire season and there was the definite possibility it could have been ugly. If tOSU has a Minnesota\Indiana\Nebraska type of performance then I think most will be fine being left out. However if tOSU completely shutdown Northwestern and the offense continues high on octane then it will be a tough pill to swallow. Our defense looked much better against Michigan and with Haskins is now a running threat. If they perform this way throughout the post season I think they would be a very tough out. This season has been eerily similar to 2014 for tOSU. Gonna be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Post by doc on Nov 28, 2018 19:30:34 GMT
Let them go ahead and put the #111 ranked defense in the country in the playoffs and see what happens. Ohio State's defense is in the middle of the pack (#67) but #111? And they've been playing the likes of OK State, Kansas, KSU, Baylor, Texas Tech and WVU (whose defenses are similarly ranked and all below Ohio State).
Have mercy when they play Alabama, should that be how it plays out.
Here's the thing - if Ohio State doesn't make the playoff, they'll most likely go 13-1 and be ranked in the top 3 or 4 after the bowls, ahead of Oklahoma and Notre Dame. If the somehow make the playoffs, they'll most likely go 12-2 and the loss will drop them out of the top 10 and probably behind a Michigan team they could have beaten by 40 points.
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Post by doc on Nov 28, 2018 21:46:35 GMT
Here are some interesting stats...
Each of the top 6 teams still in play for a playoff berth listed below with their:
* record against final ranked top 15 teams from 2014-2017
* record in 2018 against teams currently in top 15
* combined record of the two above
* number of playoff opportunities to date
* percentage of NC's given number of opportunities
OSU - 13-4, 2-0, 15-4, 2, 50%
Alabama - 10-4, 1-0, 11-4, 4, 50%
Clemson - 9-5, 0-0, 9-5, 3, 33%
Oklahoma- 7-6, 1-1, 8-7, 2, 0%
Georgia - 5-5, 1-1, 6-6, 1, 0%
ND - 2-8, 1-0, 3-8, 0, 0%
* There is a reason why ESPiN and the Committee harp on bad losses, and do not emphasize top wins. If they did OSU has had the best resume year in and year out pretty much since playoffs started.
* When you see a resume is it a list of accomplishments, or does it focus on your worst failure? Of course it is your top accomplishments.
* Committee and ESPiN say which OSU team will show up if they get in? Easy answer. OSU has the proven best record this year, and over the last 5 years against final ranked top 15 teams, Same is true if you want to look at final ranked top 10 teams.
* OSU has same NC win rate given number of opportunities as Alabama. You can only win the NC if you get invited.
BUT.....Oklahoma has a 'historic offense', most of which they've compiled against defenses ranked #73, 75, 79, 81, 88, 98, 105 and 110 - isn't that the surprise of the century.
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Post by Bevo on Nov 28, 2018 22:39:16 GMT
Let them go ahead and put the #111 ranked defense in the country in the playoffs and see what happens. Ohio State's defense is in the middle of the pack (#67) but #111? And they've been playing the likes of OK State, Kansas, KSU, Baylor, Texas Tech and WVU (whose defenses are similarly ranked and all below Ohio State). Have mercy when they play Alabama, should that be how it plays out. Here's the thing - if Ohio State doesn't make the playoff, they'll most likely go 13-1 and be ranked in the top 3 or 4 after the bowls, ahead of Oklahoma and Notre Dame. If the somehow make the playoffs, they'll most likely go 12-2 and the loss will drop them out of the top 10 and probably behind a Michigan team they could have beaten by 40 points. It's a bit of "chicken and Egg" thing Doc... You throw off OU "playing the likes of : WVU, Ok State, and Texas Tech"..... Both those teams, respectively have the #8, #10 and #12 OFFENSES in the country.... That's who these defenses have to play against... as well, as the #1 offense, Oklahoma. That's FOUR games against offenses in the Top 12.
It's not easy to be a good 'statistical' defense in the Big 12.
Not many Top 20 offenses in the B1G after Ohio State... Only one... Missouri, at #17.
So, which comes first great offense or bad defense? I guess we'll see. Michigan defense was #1 in the country before playing OSU. Offense WON that battle...easily.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 29, 2018 12:58:11 GMT
About as bad as losing to a 4-8 team. Pfft. That never happens. Well, maybe on Thursdays.  |
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Post by doc on Nov 29, 2018 14:27:56 GMT
I think the theory is great defense will stop great offense - well that didn't happen on Saturday due to the arrogance of Michigan's head coach and defensive coordinator. I don't think Saban would make the mistakes that Harbaugh made last weekend.
Missouri is in the SEC, Purdue and Nebraska are top 30 offenses, Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State are top 50. I know it's a different style and I will say that freshman from Purdue gave Ohio State fits.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 29, 2018 17:20:53 GMT
Here's the picture:
Win and in:
Alabama
Clemson Notre Dame oops,my bad - conference championships are a committee "priority", until they aren't 
You can basically boil Alabama down to two schools of thought. The first says that the committee would value the conference championship of either a 12-1 Oklahoma or a 12-1 Ohio State over a 12-1 Alabama with no SEC title.
The second says the committee thinks Alabama is so great, that even if they lose it doesn’t matter because they still think it is a better team than Oklahoma or Ohio State.
There are ways the Tigers could still get into the Playoff with a loss to Pitt, but honestly if they can’t beat the Panthers with a berth in the field on the line, they don’t really deserve to go. Just take care of business in Charlotte Saturday night.
Watching and Waiting:
Notre Dame
99.9% no way the committee would leave out an undefeated Notre Dame for any team with a loss.
Win and Maybe In:
Georgia
If they can’t pull off the upset, they have to hope both Oklahoma and Ohio State lose their respective games, giving the committee no choice but to throw up their hands and keep the rankings status quo. The only problem there? They would be setting up an Alabama-Georgia rematch just four weeks later.
Oklahoma
The committee correctly tempered any possible overreaction to Ohio State’s thumping of Michigan by keeping the Sooners slotted ahead of the Buckeyes. That’s good news for Oklahoma, who basically just needs to win its matchup with Texas and make sure Alabama and Clemson win to ensure that it gets into the field. There’s simply no way the committee could justify Ohio State leap frogging Oklahoma if both teams win this weekend.
Put simply, there’s no potential margin of victory over Northwestern for Ohio State that could outweigh an Oklahoma win over Texas.
Ohio STate
Escorted Michigan out of Playoff contention by whooping the Wolverines courtesy of a 62-point offensive explosion against what many had touted as perhaps the nation’s best defense. It’s a great win — one of the very best in the country — but it just doesn’t override the rest of a season in which Ohio State has simply looked pedestrian. This position is about all the Buckeyes could ask for. If they beat Northwestern, and Oklahoma falls again to Texas, they will get in the Playoff if everybody else holds serve. Considering where they were a week ago, that’s a great situation.
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Post by Bevo on Nov 29, 2018 18:11:59 GMT
I think the theory is great defense will stop great offense - well that didn't happen on Saturday due to the arrogance of Michigan's head coach and defensive coordinator. I don't think Saban would make the mistakes that Harbaugh made last weekend. Missouri is in the SEC, Purdue and Nebraska are top 30 offenses, Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State are top 50. I know it's a different style and I will say that freshman from Purdue gave Ohio State fits. Ohio State's defense might well be statistically ranked at #111 or below had they played a full Big 12 schedule. |
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 29, 2018 21:57:10 GMT
If you gave Nick Saban a dose of truth serum and asked him which team he’d rather play, straight up, he’d most likely tell you Oklahoma.
They don’t have the same caliber of player in the trenches as Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. The Buckeyes have as much blue-chip talent as anyone in the country short of Bama and they’re one of two teams who have the ability to play with the Tide and not get steamrolled into a pancake.
Ohio State’s defense has been garbage for most of the season. But you can’t criticize them for it while propping up Oklahoma. The Buckeyes also have two more impressive wins than OU (at Penn State, vs Michigan).
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Post by bluehen on Nov 30, 2018 13:30:07 GMT
I like to play dogs in my wagering.
Vs Alabama in the DPI games I'd have to have...
Clemson + 6
OSU + 13
Oklahoma + 16
Notre Dame + 16
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 30, 2018 13:48:31 GMT
We'll see what happens in the Alabama and Clemson quarter-final games.
Bama was awarded a spot last year.
Dec 1 Bama would’ve lost to Clemson because Bama was very injured.
But Dec 29 Bama was healthy by then. .
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About as bad as losing to a 4-8 team.
