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Post by ajbuckeye on Nov 21, 2022 3:28:47 GMT
Here is how I see it:
Teams that control there destiny's
UGA win 1 of you last 2 games and you are in. No way the committee leaves 1 loss SEC team out
ttun tOSU winner is in
TCU win and in
USC win and in
At the moment there are 2 filled spots and 2 open depending on TCU and USC.
Here is my take on the pecking order:
#1A Clemson wins out they will be in. They will be a one loss conference champ. Their biggest threat would be a 1 loss tOSU. What is more important conference champ or head to Head. OSU beat ND and ND put it to Clemson. LSU is in a bad position on this one even if they win the SEC due to head to head vs FSU where Clemson won and LSU lost.
#1B tOSU with a loss. If ND beats USC then that win will be huge for the Buckeyes if the lose in the game (which I don't see happening)
#3A LSU with a win over UGA their resume puts them in the mix but this weekend was bittersweet for LSU. Tenn losing certain helps but with Tenn and Ole Miss taking it on the chin is a hit for the worst. This is a team that needs to win impressively with 2 losses and the 3 point win over 6-5 Arky did not help matters.
#3B ttun There OOC conference was horrible and the Illini showing did not help. If they loose vs tOSU it better be very competitive. If that happens it will certainly help if the decision is between ttun and LSU. Outside factors will also play a part. If somehow Bama lays an egg vs Auburn then that will be a chink in LSU's resume. Probably the biggest factor is PSU. So far PSU has beat every team handily with the exception of tOSU and ttun. A win against State should propel them in the top 6 if chaos occurs.
#5 1 loss TCU that wins the B12. I would think this is more impressive than any other 2 loss team out there.
The ultimate long shots Tennessee and Bama. Their best bet is to have LSU,ttun,Clemson,TCU,and USC to lose. If this happens it would be a beauty contest between a bunch of teams with a bunch of pimples.
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Post by EvilVodka on Nov 21, 2022 12:40:41 GMT
I'm pulling for LSU of course,
but a Ohio State vs. TCU, Georgia vs. USC playoff would be a lot of fun
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Post by ajbuckeye on Nov 23, 2022 14:58:25 GMT
The committee seems to like LSU. The one thing that during the discussions they were talking about the close game near misses from the top 4. Then in the next sentence they said that LSU was hot. Did they not see the 13 - 10 win over Arky. Oh well
Regarding the AJ Projection here is an update.
UGA - In with a win but not sure they are an absolute lock. If they some how get blown out by LSU they could end up on the outside. The scenario would TCU winning out and a narrow ttun win over tOSU.
tOSU - Win and in. Bad loss they are done. Close loss then 2 of 3 need to happen TCU loss, USC Loss, LSU Loss. They would get the nod over Clemson
ttun - Win and in. Bad loss they are done. Close loss then 3 of 4 need to happen TCU loss, USC Loss, LSU Loss, Clemson Loss. OOC schedule hurts them again Clemson
TCU - Win and in. Bad loss ends them. Close loss they will need absolute chaos
LSU - Committee did them a huge favor. It will be very hard for USC to pass them if they get a win. If they get a win they only way not to put them in is a close loss by tOSU
USC - Win out and their chances are very good. Worst case scenario would be a tight loss by tOSU and LSU beating UGA.
Clemson - Has a path. TCU,ttun,USC, and LSU need to lose. This scenario could certain happen
Bama Tennessee have a hail Mary LSU, TCU, USC, Clemson all go down. I don't see either passing the B10 loser but that would open door number 4.
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Post by doc on Nov 23, 2022 16:28:50 GMT
I guess losing by 27 on your home field doesn’t count in a negative way for LSU.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Nov 23, 2022 18:04:46 GMT
I guess losing by 27 on your home field doesn’t count in a negative way for LSU. The loss to FSU was in Louisiana as well. Clemson beat FSU on the road but that clearly has not weight associated with it. |
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Post by bluehen on Nov 23, 2022 20:46:39 GMT
SEC has different 'weight' standards. If CBS or Fox was running the 'Invitational' I suspect you'd see different 'weight' standards.
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Post by Hero on Nov 24, 2022 13:32:33 GMT
There will be weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth with several left out this year.
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Post by doc on Nov 24, 2022 17:13:14 GMT
I guess losing by 27 on your home field doesn’t count in a negative way for LSU. The loss to FSU was in Louisiana as well. Clemson beat FSU on the road but that clearly has not weight associated with it. LSU is #5 for an obvious reason. If they should beat Georgia its a lot easier moving them into the playoff than if they were 7 or 8. If they lose to Georgia it doesn't matter. But should USC, Clemson and TCU win out there will be a mess and a half. Factor in the OSU/UM loser with one loss - especially if its a close game. You'll have TCU and the OSU/UM winner undefeated. USC and Clemson would be 1 loss conference champs. Georgia and the OSU/UM loser would have 1 loss. But should this happen there's no doubt they'd put LSU in over the one loss teams...except for Georgia. The seeds would be very interesting too because there's no way they'd have an LSU/Georgia rematch in the semi-finals. A few years back OSU was 12-1, B16 champs but got beat pretty badly at Iowa which the committee said was a determining factor. LSU lost at home by 27 (37-7 at one point) but they'll put them in with 2 losses. Hope Georgia waxes them. |
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Post by ajbuckeye on Nov 27, 2022 23:24:31 GMT
The loss to FSU was in Louisiana as well. Clemson beat FSU on the road but that clearly has not weight associated with it. LSU is #5 for an obvious reason. If they should beat Georgia its a lot easier moving them into the playoff than if they were 7 or 8. If they lose to Georgia it doesn't matter. But should USC, Clemson and TCU win out there will be a mess and a half. Factor in the OSU/UM loser with one loss - especially if its a close game. You'll have TCU and the OSU/UM winner undefeated. USC and Clemson would be 1 loss conference champs. Georgia and the OSU/UM loser would have 1 loss. But should this happen there's no doubt they'd put LSU in over the one loss teams...except for Georgia. The seeds would be very interesting too because there's no way they'd have an LSU/Georgia rematch in the semi-finals. A few years back OSU was 12-1, B16 champs but got beat pretty badly at Iowa which the committee said was a determining factor. LSU lost at home by 27 (37-7 at one point) but they'll put them in with 2 losses. Hope Georgia waxes them. Thank goodness they lost. Nick Saban is now pushing for a playoff spot. I am sure ESPN will be following his lead as they start there annual committee lobby fest. |
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Post by Bevo on Nov 27, 2022 23:49:06 GMT
I guess losing by 27 on your home field doesn’t count in a negative way for LSU. if you're going to lose by 20+ on your home field, it's better to do it EARLY in the season, not in the last game. Thanks Ohio State, for making us all endure a smug Harbaugh for at least another year.  |
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Post by Hero on Nov 28, 2022 0:12:34 GMT
LSU is #5 for an obvious reason. If they should beat Georgia its a lot easier moving them into the playoff than if they were 7 or 8. If they lose to Georgia it doesn't matter. But should USC, Clemson and TCU win out there will be a mess and a half. Factor in the OSU/UM loser with one loss - especially if its a close game. You'll have TCU and the OSU/UM winner undefeated. USC and Clemson would be 1 loss conference champs. Georgia and the OSU/UM loser would have 1 loss. But should this happen there's no doubt they'd put LSU in over the one loss teams...except for Georgia. The seeds would be very interesting too because there's no way they'd have an LSU/Georgia rematch in the semi-finals. A few years back OSU was 12-1, B16 champs but got beat pretty badly at Iowa which the committee said was a determining factor. LSU lost at home by 27 (37-7 at one point) but they'll put them in with 2 losses. Hope Georgia waxes them. Thank goodness they lost. Nick Saban is now pushing for a playoff spot. I am sure ESPN will be following his lead as they start there annual committee lobby fest. Well that is it. BAMA is in. |
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Post by bluehen on Nov 29, 2022 1:14:21 GMT
Better yet, Hero : the ESPN-Dr.Pepper Invitational winner earns the right to play Saban/Bama for the true championship !!!
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Post by Hero on Nov 29, 2022 14:05:26 GMT
Better yet, Hero : the ESPN-Dr.Pepper Invitational winner earns the right to play Saban/Bama for the true championship !!! You're catching on.  |
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Post by Bevo on Nov 29, 2022 15:26:32 GMT
Better yet, Hero : the ESPN-Dr.Pepper Invitational winner earns the right to play Saban/Bama for the true championship !!! You're catching on. I had a feeling you'd be OK with that format!  |
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