Post by GatorGrad on Aug 9, 2023 18:54:36 GMT
I used to think it was fun back when we had small moves like Arkansas/South Carolina to the SEC, Miami/VaTech to the ACC, and more recently...A&M to the SEC, Nebraska to the Big Ten, and Colorado to the PAC-12. All of these moves at least made geographical sense at the time. But we have now jumped the shark. Between realignment, the new transfer rules, and NIL...I can't say I'm as passionate about college football as I used to be. Still my favorite sport overall, but they've done a lot of damage to its magic. Who would have thought that the 90's and BCS Era would have been the pinnacle of college football. We finally have an actual playoff and yet I find myself less excited about the sport moving forward.
Anyways here is what I see happening...
I am pretty confident that Notre Dame isn't going to join the ACC full-time. They will remain Independent or be forced to join the Big Ten someday. Or perhaps Chip Kelly's idea makes more sense and ALL football teams should just be independent and conferences only really need to be for the other sports. Hopefully making geographical sense again?
Otherwise the ACC's best brands will leave for the Big Ten or SEC after their current TV deal expires so no later than 2036...most likely sooner. The best of the rest ACC schools will most likely join the Big 12 which will be made up of 20+ schools that neither the Big Ten or SEC wanted. We will then essentially be left with three major conferences of 20+ teams each:
Big Ten
SEC
Big 12
I believe the Big Ten and SEC will bring in a lot more money than the Big 12, but the Big 12 will bring in a lot more than any other conference. So it will be a "P3" or "P2 + 1."
The SEC will be the only conference that makes geographical sense with continuous states all in the southeastern quadrant of the country. The only states they might add might be a school in NC and VA which is fine. The Big 12 stretching from Arizona to West Virginia down to Florida is ridiculous. As is the Big Ten going from LA to Washington to New Jersey. It's a mess. Conferences are too large and too spread out. What we should really have is six regional conferences of 10-12 schools each.
At this point, the endgame is going to be the top brands breaking away to form their own football-only premier league. Once Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and Michigan get sick of sharing revenue equally with schools like Mississippi State and Indiana, it will happen. I don't know if it will be the top 16 brands, top 20, 30, or 40 but eventually the fat will be trimmed. Better hope your school makes the cut when the time comes, I guess? Sad but true.
Anyways here is what I see happening...
I am pretty confident that Notre Dame isn't going to join the ACC full-time. They will remain Independent or be forced to join the Big Ten someday. Or perhaps Chip Kelly's idea makes more sense and ALL football teams should just be independent and conferences only really need to be for the other sports. Hopefully making geographical sense again?
Otherwise the ACC's best brands will leave for the Big Ten or SEC after their current TV deal expires so no later than 2036...most likely sooner. The best of the rest ACC schools will most likely join the Big 12 which will be made up of 20+ schools that neither the Big Ten or SEC wanted. We will then essentially be left with three major conferences of 20+ teams each:
Big Ten
SEC
Big 12
I believe the Big Ten and SEC will bring in a lot more money than the Big 12, but the Big 12 will bring in a lot more than any other conference. So it will be a "P3" or "P2 + 1."
The SEC will be the only conference that makes geographical sense with continuous states all in the southeastern quadrant of the country. The only states they might add might be a school in NC and VA which is fine. The Big 12 stretching from Arizona to West Virginia down to Florida is ridiculous. As is the Big Ten going from LA to Washington to New Jersey. It's a mess. Conferences are too large and too spread out. What we should really have is six regional conferences of 10-12 schools each.
At this point, the endgame is going to be the top brands breaking away to form their own football-only premier league. Once Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and Michigan get sick of sharing revenue equally with schools like Mississippi State and Indiana, it will happen. I don't know if it will be the top 16 brands, top 20, 30, or 40 but eventually the fat will be trimmed. Better hope your school makes the cut when the time comes, I guess? Sad but true.