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Post by ajbuckeye on Sept 19, 2016 17:04:34 GMT
No team has made a bigger statement this season than Louisville. They not only dismantled FSU but have jumped into the CFP mix as the ACC leading contender espicially with Clemson not yet clicking on all cylinders. The Big 12 on the other took another step backwards and now appear to be way on the outside when it comes to getting a CFP team. There hopes are for either an undeafeated Baylor who scheduled the little sisters of the poor for non-conference or WVU who did have a nice win against Mizzou.
Thumbs Up: Houston: went into a hostile environment with 5 days rest and get a win against a good Cincinnati team. Even though the game was tight until the end they did show some grit as UC collapsed at the end Louisville: Went from a New Years day Bowl contender to the king of the ACC. Impressive performance by Lamar Jackson BIG: 5 - 0 vs P5 conferences with wins against ND, Oklahoma, and Oregon this past weekend. According to the Howell report, BIG has outperformed all other conference by a long shot especially in P5 match ups. NDSU: Showed that they once again can play with the Big Boys Miami: Hats off to scheduling an absolutely no win situation at Appy State. They dominated Appy State in there biggest home game every. Considering Appy State gave Tennessee everything they could handle was impressive. PAC 12: Stanford and Washington continue to impress. I see them both being impact players in the CFB Nebraska: Huge win for the program over Oregon. They look like they are ready to contend in the west.
Thumbs Down: B12: Had a chance the get some redemption for this season but came up short on all accounts with Oklahoma and Texas taking a dive. They drop below the American in strength of conference and put themselves in a tough place when looking for CFP consderations. Iowa: Showed that they are pretty far a way from the Elites in the country although NDSU has proven time and time again that they can compete. Ole Miss: Granted it was against elite competition but being up by 20+ points and blowing the lead in not one but 2 games is rough Notre Dame: High expectations combined with a horrible defense is a tough combinations. Did Kelly throw his DC under the bus on twitter? Never liked Kelly especially with the way he left UC and knowing his personality I would not put this past him.
Top 4 Bama, Ohio St, Louisville, Stanford Not sure if Houston as the depth and the game against Louisville down the stretch looks daunting Michigan will have to go to Columbus at the end of the season which is a pretty tall order
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Post by Bevo on Sept 19, 2016 17:21:05 GMT
Agree with most everything.... except Nebraska. I was NOT impressed. They got lucky, at home.
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Post by tigercpa on Sept 19, 2016 20:06:47 GMT
Louisville Clemson was a hot ticket, now it's a really hot ticket. Just announced 8pm ABC.
Clemson should get read / option practice in ATL this week, which should help prepare for Louisville 10 days after. The Tigers will have to set the edge and keep Jackson contained from doing damage in the open field. Jackson reminds me of a right-handed Micahel Vick. If you don't get the read / option under control early, Jackson makes you pay with a big play.
I think Venables D is set up well to do that, and keep Jackson in 3rd and long territory. Hit him hard early, like we did Williams in the ACC title game, make him throw across his body. If he beats us with his arm and efficient passing, then I'll tip my hat. So far, we haven't seen that.
No doubt, Vegas will try to set their usual trap...Louisville +3.5, the public swamps Louisville, and as often happens when almost all of the people are on a road underdog in a big night game, Louisville will get thumped and the people will lose their money on that "LOCK!!!!" game.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 19, 2016 20:56:28 GMT
tigercpa: "If he beats us with his arm and efficient passing, then I'll tip my hat. So far, we haven't seen that."
You and I must have been watching different Lamar Jackson's.
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Post by Bevo on Sept 19, 2016 22:49:40 GMT
No doubt, Vegas will try to set their usual trap...Louisville +3.5, the public swamps Louisville, and as often happens when almost all of the people are on a road underdog in a big night game, Louisville will get thumped and the people will lose their money on that "LOCK!!!!" game. MamaBevo and I will be in Vegas that weekend.... So, you're saying I should lay the points?? :-) I already have a LOT bet on Clemson. We may just WATCH that game... should be a doozy.
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Post by tigercpa on Sept 19, 2016 22:53:19 GMT
tigercpa: "If he beats us with his arm and efficient passing, then I'll tip my hat. So far, we haven't seen that." You and I must have been watching different Lamar Jackson's. I'm not saying he can't throw the ball, just that I don’t think he can be the type of efficient, accurate passer needed to consistently win 3rd down against Clemson's D.
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Post by tigercpa on Sept 19, 2016 23:03:38 GMT
No doubt, Vegas will try to set their usual trap...Louisville +3.5, the public swamps Louisville, and as often happens when almost all of the people are on a road underdog in a big night game, Louisville will get thumped and the people will lose their money on that "LOCK!!!!" game. MamaBevo and I will be in Vegas that weekend.... So, you're saying I should lay the points?? :-) I already have a LOT bet on Clemson. We may just WATCH that game... should be a doozy. Just be careful, Vegas loves to sucker people in by giving points to a road dog in a big game.
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Post by Bevo on Sept 20, 2016 1:09:28 GMT
MamaBevo and I will be in Vegas that weekend.... So, you're saying I should lay the points?? :-) I already have a LOT bet on Clemson. We may just WATCH that game... should be a doozy. Just be careful, Vegas loves to sucker people in by giving points to a road dog in a big game. I expect the line to be EVEN... and, even then, I'd be tempted to take Louisville The Cards are going to SMOKE the Tigers...
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 20, 2016 2:25:33 GMT
tigercpa: "If he beats us with his arm and efficient passing, then I'll tip my hat. So far, we haven't seen that." You and I must have been watching different Lamar Jackson's. I'm not saying he can't throw the ball, just that I don’t think he can be the type of efficient, accurate passer needed to consistently win 3rd down against Clemson's D. We will have an opportunity to find out.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 20, 2016 2:27:32 GMT
Just be careful, Vegas loves to sucker people in by giving points to a road dog in a big game. I expect the line to be EVEN... and, even then, I'd be tempted to take Louisville The Cards are going to SMOKE the Tigers... We might know more this weekend. If Louisville can ring up a 63-10 advantage over Marshall before calling off the dogs, then I will be a true believer.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Sept 20, 2016 2:41:45 GMT
Agree with most everything.... except Nebraska. I was NOT impressed. They got lucky, at home. Nebraska was a bit of an afterthought but they did get a big win against a ranked opponent. That hasn't happened a while in Nebraska. Looking at the west I think they are poised to compete although they are a bit behind the teams in the east. Texas AM in my mind is a lot like Nebraska. Not sold on either team but they have showed some grit early on.
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Post by ajbuckeye on Sept 20, 2016 2:49:05 GMT
Louisville Clemson was a hot ticket, now it's a really hot ticket. Just announced 8pm ABC. Clemson should get read / option practice in ATL this week, which should help prepare for Louisville 10 days after. The Tigers will have to set the edge and keep Jackson contained from doing damage in the open field. Jackson reminds me of a right-handed Micahel Vick. If you don't get the read / option under control early, Jackson makes you pay with a big play. I think Venables D is set up well to do that, and keep Jackson in 3rd and long territory. Hit him hard early, like we did Williams in the ACC title game, make him throw across his body. If he beats us with his arm and efficient passing, then I'll tip my hat. So far, we haven't seen that. No doubt, Vegas will try to set their usual trap...Louisville +3.5, the public swamps Louisville, and as often happens when almost all of the people are on a road underdog in a big night game, Louisville will get thumped and the people will lose their money on that "LOCK!!!!" game. This will be next to impossible to pick. Clemson is the established team with a boat load of talent coming off a CFP Championship game. They just don't seem to have the fire as of yet which was very similar to the Buckeyes last year. The question to be answered is will they turn it on when they strap it up against Louisville. On the other hand now that Louisville is in the forefront, can they live up to there billing. Not a game to bet the house on.
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Post by tigercpa on Sept 20, 2016 11:07:35 GMT
Just be careful, Vegas loves to sucker people in by giving points to a road dog in a big game. I expect the line to be EVEN... and, even then, I'd be tempted to take Louisville The Cards are going to SMOKE the Tigers...
Them's fightin' words. Sounds like we have a bottle of nice bourbon up for grabs here? Hero can escrow the funds.
FWIW, Florida State opened as a 3-point road favorite over Louisville. That would have translated to at least a line of FSU -7.5 at home (lines get a little funky between the critical numbers of 7 and 10), and more likely a number of FSU -8.5 at home.
Any power ranking that’s correlated to last season and returning players (as they should be this early in the season) has Clemson rated higher than FSU. Now, we have some new information about Louisville (namely, the beatdown of FSU). But not enough to move that line more than a touchdown.
Home field matters and lines are still set on power rankings. It’s why Auburn was a 3.5-point favorite at home over Texas A&M. Why Notre Dame was an 8-point home favorite over Michigan State. Etc We’ve seen this time and again with Clemson, too. Clemson was a 10.5-point favorite last year at home against Florida State. Clemson’s currently 2nd in F/+; Louisville is 6th. These are the things that set the lines. Sagarin's pure points is also a reliable source of line setting by the bookies, but not so much early in the season.
Louisville most likely will not be favored in a road game at Clemson given the current state of the power rankings the books use. I’ll be shocked if Clemson’s not at least a field goal favorite.
The media and Vegas disrespected Louisville by discounting their early success and expecting FSU to walk into their house and walk out with a win. That’s a heck of a lot of motivation working in their favor.
That could be totally reversed going into the game against us where the tide of public opinion is all on their side and the media is all calling for them to be in the playoff after week 3. Can’t imagine Clemson, coming off a playoff appearance and with a Heisman finalist at quarterback who is now being seen as an also ran.
Unless...some VIP in orange gets hurt Thursday night.
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Post by Bevo on Sept 20, 2016 13:48:23 GMT
Them's fightin' words. Sounds like we have a bottle of nice bourbon up for grabs here? Hero can escrow the funds. You're on! I get the points though.. if there are any! :-) Can't let Hero hold the money. He'll blow it on pork butt. Clemson’s currently 2nd in F/+; Louisville is 6th. These are the things that set the lines That may be what SETS lines, but... public wagering is what moves them. Clemson has looked pathetic all year (last week counts for nothing(. Louisville has been blowing people OUT. Even people like Florida State. The Cards have a big pile of STYLE POINTS,and that matters to bettors. We'll see, soon enough. Maybe the Cards lay an egg at Marshall after a week of partying? If they just squeak out an ugly win, I'm sure that will move the numbers in Clemson's favor. If they call the game at half-time with Louisville ahead by 100? The Cards might come into Death Valley as a road favorite! If they are? Our bet is off! I ain't giving no points.
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Post by EvilVodka on Sept 20, 2016 14:28:30 GMT
I think there's Bama, Louisville, and Ohio State, and then a drop off....
I don't know who in the SEC can beat Alabama...
This year actually sets up good for a playoff.
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