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Post by doc on Jan 23, 2017 16:07:07 GMT
With the nominations out tomorrow here is my annual stab at predicting who will be happy around 8:45 am tomorrow morning. Given the 'Oscar is too white' backlash last year, I think you'll see a far more diverse slate of nominees this year. Here goes nothing....
Supporting Actor 1. Mahershala Ali - Moonlight. He is the favorite. He was also seen in Hidden Figures and is featured in several Netflix TV shows. 2. Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water 3. Dev Patel - Lion 4. Lucas Hedges - Manchester By the Sea 5. Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals
#6 is Hugh Grant from Florence Foster Jenkins - the guy deserves some kind of award for playing Meryl Streep's husband!
Supporting Actress 1. Viola Davis - Fences. She will win, if she doesn't then the Oscar's are too white. The others are playing for second place and preparing to say, 'It's an honor just to be nominated.' 2. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea 3. Naomie Harris - Moonlight 4. Nicole Kidman - Lion 5. Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
This has been the top five pretty consistently for most of the award shows but #6 (and a possible spoiler) is pop star, Jannelle Monae from Hidden Figures.
Best Actor 1. Casey Affleck - Manchester By the Sea. This is a slam dunk, he will win. Again, the others are playing for second place. 2. Ryan Gosling - LA LA Land 3. Denzel Washington - Fences 4. Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge 5. Vigo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
#6 is Joel Edgerton of Loving.
Best Actress 1. Amy Adams - Arrival 2. Natalie Portman - Jackie 3. Ruth Negga - Loving 4. Isabelle Huppert - Elle 5. Taraji P. Henson - Hidden Figures
#6 is Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins and I fully expect her to be nominated. I'd rather see Taraji P. Henson in this spot, she was in a far more important movie, it would mean far more to her and I can't help but think a big influence in a nomination for Streep would be her anti-Trump speech at the Golden Globes which made me want to turn the show off. This is the most wide open category - really too close to call at this time.
Best Director 1. Damien Chazelle - LA LA Land. the most likely leader - Hollywood loves honoring movies about Hollywood. Plus, he would be the youngest to win Best Director in the history of the AA. 2. Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By the Sea 3. Barry Jenkins - Moonlight 4. Martin Scorsese - Silence 5. Denzel Washington - Fences
#6 Dennis Villenueva from Arrival. Mel Gibson is also a possibility but I'm not sure he can overcome his drunken tirades from about 10 years ago.
Best Picture 1. Arrival 2. Hacksaw Ridge 3. Hell or High Water 4. Hidden Figures 5. LA LA Land 6. Moonlight 7. Fences 8. Manchester By the Sea
I see 8 nominated films. The leaders have to be LA LA Land and Moonlight. The only one I haven't seen is Moonlight. I saw Hidden Figures Saturday and I really hope it gets a nomination - it was a great story. The two possible breakthroughs are Lion and Loving.
There you have it - we'll see how well I did tomorrow. |
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Post by doc on Jan 24, 2017 14:34:31 GMT
Nailed it this year. The 8 films I predicted were all nominated plus Lion which I had as #9.
I got all the Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress nominees.
I stumbled a little in the actress category - I actually expected Emma Stone to be nominated but for some reason I didn't list her - I guess I really wanted Taraji P. Henson to be nominated. Amy Adams was not nominated - a big surprise - and of course Meryl Streep was which is a damn shame. So I got 3 out of 5 but truly meant to predict Emma Stone - big brain fart!
As for director - I got 3 of 5 but did mention both Villenueva and Gibson as potential breakthroughs and both made it - Scorsese and Washington were left off the list.
So, of the 34 top nominations, I got 29 right and it should have been 3i because I knew Stone and Streep would be nominated - I just was wishing Henson would make it.
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Post by Bevo on Jan 25, 2017 15:53:56 GMT
Best Picture 1. Arrival 2. Hacksaw Ridge 3. Hell or High Water 4. Hidden Figures 5. LA LA Land 6. Moonlight 7. Fences 8. Manchester By the Sea
I see 8 nominated films. The leaders have to be LA LA Land and Moonlight. The only one I haven't seen is Moonlight. I saw Hidden Figures Saturday and I really hope it gets a nomination - it was a great story. The two possible breakthroughs are Lion and Loving.
There you have it - we'll see how well I did tomorrow.
I've only seen the bolded ones above... Looks like I have some movie watching to do! Of those, I thought La La Land was the best.... but, all four were quite good.
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Post by doc on Jan 25, 2017 19:10:12 GMT
I'm seeing Moonlight this weekend with my daughter. I'll see Lion with my wife and that will complete the 9 nominees. Manchester and Fences aren't the most uplifting movies but the acting was great - Casey Affleck and Viola Davis will win their respective Oscars. Hell or High Water is on DVD, I think you'll like it - filmed in little towns in Texas.
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Post by Bevo on Jan 29, 2017 21:18:36 GMT
Watched Hell or High Water last night... Pretty good. Definitely NOT Movie of the Year material. Nor do I think Jeff Bridges' performance was anything really special. It was an excellent depiction of what Midland, Texas is really like.
That shut down chemical plant they kept showing was the old Rexene styrene plant. I visited that plant in 2001, just a few months before it was shut down.
We've decided to boycott Manchester By the Sea. We just don't need any more sadness in out life.
A really good friend of mine just lost his brother to cancer. Well, not really to cancer, to pneumonia. He had leukemia. My friend was a donor match for bone marrow, so he donated to his brother. It went GREAT. White blood cell count was increasing.. they were all ecstatic! But, he took a sudden down turn due to illness. His overall weakness left him so vulnerable, he couldn't pull out of it.
I'll be making a donation to you Doc, in the name of Rusty Lipsey.
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Post by doc on Jan 30, 2017 16:30:44 GMT
Cancer sucks!
I will say Maya is doing much better! Our daughter was in the Memphis area for work last week so she arranged to visit her at St. Judes. The last couple weeks she's made wonderful improvement. They're very optimistic that the worst is behind her. This kid truly is an inspiration - 3 bone marrow transplants by the age of 13.
Our LLS bike ride is in Maine this year - September 9. We'll start our heavy training in May. Maya will be our honored hero but we would be honored to ride for Rusty, as well.
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Post by Bevo on Jan 30, 2017 16:51:59 GMT
Cancer sucks! we would be honored to ride for Rusty, as well. His family would love this, I think.. |
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Post by Bevo on Aug 22, 2017 22:05:55 GMT
So... I FINALLY finished watching "Fences".... I say 'finished' because, I started watching it a few weeks ago, on a domestic Delta flight. I finished watching it today, while flying from Pittsburg to Atlanta. Fitting, I guess... since the writer was from Pittsburg.
I was an emotional wreck watching this movie. But, I very much enjoyed it. In retrospect, I think it was the BEST movie of last year. And, I liked La La Land so much, I've seen it more than 10 times. I have to say, I am a little pissed off about the reviews I read about Fences. NONE of them got to the core of what this movie was about. The lady sitting next to me on the plane told me she didn't like it, and explained why. As I listened, I realized.... Fences is a movie for MEN.. Men who are about my age. It was about the tension between MEN and fathers in the 50's and 60's, and the relationship they had with their sons.
My Dad was pretty hard on me, at times... it's what men were trained to do back then. My grandfather was MUCH harder on my Dad than my Dad was to me. It's been an on-going transformation. Denzel's character had a lot of issues. Viola's character was full and complex. But, the CORE of this movie was the impact Denzel had on his son... whether or not it was appreciated at the time. It's what MEN hope for, even when being hard.
I'm not surprised the Roger Ebert's of the world didn't 'get it'. But, I did. It was a moving story. One with excellent dialogue, good direction, and great acting. What more can anyone ask for in a movie?
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Post by doc on Aug 23, 2017 13:02:39 GMT
Agreed, my dad was a lot like Troy - he was hard on me and as I look back on my childhood (which I actually did at mass on Sunday) I think my dad was tremendously frustrated that he lived paycheck to paycheck and had to bust his ass everyday to keep food on the table. He once told me, 'don't ever expect anyone to repay you for something you've done for them because once you've done it, you can't get it back - it's gone.' It took me a while to figure out what he meant but in the end I think - much like Troy - he was saying 'I gave you life, I feed you, you have clothes on your back and a roof over your head - I've done all these things for you and you've given nothing back in return.' A little reverse psychology that I finally got. He was a complicated man - he wore out his belt on all of us (I have 7 brothers and sisters)and he and my mom had a very volatile relationship - they seemed happiest when they were fighting and they fought a lot, mostly about money which we had very little of. To their credit, they stuck it out - were married 45 years when my dad died. So yeah, I saw a great deal of my dad in Troy and I have to say, like the son in the movie, I didn't care much for my dad when I was a kid. In a way, I felt like I was rewatching my childhood - although he actually wanted me to play sports, he never missed any of my games.
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Post by Bevo on Aug 23, 2017 13:27:55 GMT
Agreed, my dad was a lot like Troy - he was hard on me and as I look back on my childhood (which I actually did at mass on Sunday) I think my dad was tremendously frustrated that he lived paycheck to paycheck and had to bust his ass everyday to keep food on the table. He once told me, 'don't ever expect anyone to repay you for something you've done for them because once you've done it, you can't get it back - it's gone.' It took me a while to figure out what he meant but in the end I think - much like Troy - he was saying 'I gave you life, I feed you, you have clothes on your back and a roof over your head - I've done all these things for you and you've given nothing back in return.' A little reverse psychology that I finally got. He was a complicated man - he wore out his belt on all of us (I have 7 brothers and sisters)and he and my mom had a very volatile relationship - they seemed happiest when they were fighting and they fought a lot, mostly about money which we had very little of. To their credit, they stuck it out - were married 45 years when my dad died. So yeah, I saw a great deal of my dad in Troy and I have to say, like the son in the movie, I didn't care much for my dad when I was a kid. In a way, I felt like I was rewatching my childhood - although he actually wanted me to play sports, he never missed any of my games. We were pretty much the same way. My Dad worked shiftwork in a chemical plant. So, it seemed he was gone ALL the time. When he was home, he was likely sleeping. My Mom is the one who raised us. That said, my Dad was never really overtly mean. He was just distant. He wasn't a mechanic, or handy... so, we never got to do any of that together. He did drag me along to play golf a few times. I think, at my mother's insistence. But, he only gave me one club to hit. (a 4 wood) He was CHEAP to a fault. But, if you ever could get him to open that wallet, he would spend his money on quality. In the rare times when he was off for a few days, or we went on vacation, he was funny, and caring. But, those times were rare indeed. My dad did give me two very important things: A strong work ethic, and a love of reading. He NEVER missed work... EVER. And, he LOVED to read. I learned to love it by trying to be like him. We didn't agree on much, and that got worse as we got older. Late in life, he became a BIG liberal. We pretty much had to stop talking for awhile, because I refused to listen to him talk about how stupid and evil George W Bush was. The ONLY Thing that kept it together for us was: Football. He almost always called me during any televised Longhorn game. Took me awhile to stop expecting that call after he died. |
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