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Post by Bevo on Sept 6, 2017 18:23:47 GMT
They have POSTPONED the Tampa game at Miami. Are you kidding me?
Irma is going pass Miami >150 mile offshore to the east. All they'll see in Miami on Sunday is a cool, dry north breeze.
The NFL was saying yesterday they would move the game to a different location. Postponing the game SCREWS a bunch of fantasy owners... The fans will NOT be happy about this.
Mark my words.... Sunday, in Miami sis going to beautiful weather.
The forecast track has been wrong for days, and the weather service guys KNOW it. They are just trying to scare Floridians in to action. Now, what they've done is: Convince a bunch of people in south Florida to pack up and leave, driving north... right where the storm IS going to hit! Sheesh.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 6, 2017 19:14:00 GMT
They have POSTPONED the Tampa game at Miami. Are you kidding me? Irma is going pass Miami >150 mile offshore to the east. All they'll see in Miami on Sunday is a cool, dry north breeze. The NFL was saying yesterday they would move the game to a different location. Postponing the game SCREWS a bunch of fantasy owners... The fans will NOT be happy about this. Mark my words.... Sunday, in Miami sis going to beautiful weather. The forecast track has been wrong for days, and the weather service guys KNOW it. They are just trying to scare Floridians in to action. Now, what they've done is: Convince a bunch of people in south Florida to pack up and leave, driving north... right where the storm IS going to hit! Sheesh. You might know as much about hurricane tracking as you do about oil refineries. I would be mighty pleased if you could convince my wife, who is driving me crazy, that there is no threat. |
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Post by Bevo on Sept 6, 2017 19:56:37 GMT
You might know as much about hurricane tracking as you do about oil refineries. I would be mighty pleased if you could convince my wife, who is driving me crazy, that there is no threat. I am well versed in MANY areas. |
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Post by Bevo on Sept 6, 2017 23:17:16 GMT
I would be mighty pleased if you could convince my wife, who is driving me crazy, that there is no threat. Where is your home? Roughly? I was thinking you were on the west coast, south of Tampa? I'd be more nervous in the Jacksonville area (GG), or even up the coast near Charleston... Bucs 90? Which, reminds me... where the heck is he? |
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Post by tigercpa on Sept 6, 2017 23:38:30 GMT
They have POSTPONED the Tampa game at Miami. Are you kidding me? Irma is going pass Miami >150 mile offshore to the east. All they'll see in Miami on Sunday is a cool, dry north breeze. The NFL was saying yesterday they would move the game to a different location. Postponing the game SCREWS a bunch of fantasy owners... The fans will NOT be happy about this. Mark my words.... Sunday, in Miami sis going to beautiful weather. The forecast track has been wrong for days, and the weather service guys KNOW it. They are just trying to scare Floridians in to action. Now, what they've done is: Convince a bunch of people in south Florida to pack up and leave, driving north... right where the storm IS going to hit! Sheesh. Glad you said something - I just adjusted my lineup to bench Desean jackson |
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 7, 2017 0:36:05 GMT
I would be mighty pleased if you could convince my wife, who is driving me crazy, that there is no threat. Where is your home? Roughly? I was thinking you were on the west coast, south of Tampa? I'd be more nervous in the Jacksonville area (GG), or even up the coast near Charleston... Bucs 90? Which, reminds me... where the heck is he? We live a little east of Tampa. I don't think that we have much to worry about since the projected path has moved further east. I have been through 4 hurricanes in Florida, and was in New Orleans when Betsy hit. All were worse than the projected path of Irma indicates. I had 4 laurel oaks removed a few weeks ago. We still have several trees, including a monstrous grandfather live oak, a crazy 40' cactus and a pine that towers over the cactus. The live oak would destroy our house if it falls the right way. Impossible to get a permit to remove it (a $4,000 to $5,000 job). There is a good chance that the winds will be be strong enough to take out our new pagoda, which we use every day. My daughter lives outside of Charleston (Summerville). State of emergency declared there. My granddaughter in NYC might also be in the path. |
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Post by Bevo on Sept 7, 2017 1:26:29 GMT
Where is your home? Roughly? I was thinking you were on the west coast, south of Tampa? I'd be more nervous in the Jacksonville area (GG), or even up the coast near Charleston... Bucs 90? Which, reminds me... where the heck is he? We live a little east of Tampa. I don't think that we have much to worry about since the projected path has moved further east. I have been through 4 hurricanes in Florida, and was in New Orleans when Betsy hit. All were worse than the projected path of Irma indicates. I had 4 laurel oaks removed a few weeks ago. We still have several trees, including a monstrous grandfather live oak, a crazy 40' cactus and a pine that towers over the cactus. The live oak would destroy our house if it falls the right way. Impossible to get a permit to remove it (a $4,000 to $5,000 job). There is a good chance that the winds will be be strong enough to take out our new pagoda, which we use every day. My daughter lives outside of Charleston (Summerville). State of emergency declared there. My granddaughter in NYC might also be in the path. Yea.. I've been joking about the nutless Floridians (since, CLEARLY Fantasy Football is more important that real life!)..... But, in real terms......Like many people who have lived in hurricane affected areas, I have paid attention to them my entire life. I've lived through a couple. I've studied ALL of them, in my lifetime. I think I know a little about them. I actually entered college in the Meteorology program at UT. My "Dream Job" was to work for the NWS, predicting hurricanes. After a year, I did a little more research into my chosen profession. I learned that the NWS REQUIRED a Masters Degree to hire meteorologist. And, the ONLY schools anywhere near me that offered Master's programs were: Texas A&M, or Oklahoma. Well, that was a DEAL BREAKER for me... So, I switched to Chemical Engineering. It was a program that had exactly the same courses in the first two years (Ie: Math, and fluid flow dynamics)... The forecast tracks are still highly variable for you. There's a GOOD chance, that this storm will be a big nothing for you. It all depends on WHEN the "north turn" begins. The sooner the better, for you.. But, this is a BIG storm. It might go a little more westward than people might think. If so, you COULD be in danger. That said: where you are? The WORST that might happen is probably 125-140 mph winds, for a VERY short time.. and, NO storm surge. So, if you have a substantial house at all (just bricks)... your life is not in danger. You might well be without power, or fresh water for 3-7 days. But, you can prepare for that. We'll know a lot more this time tomorrow. My gut still says: MORE to the east, leaving you in great shape. I HOPE I'm right. :-) |
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 7, 2017 4:58:01 GMT
We are far enough inland that we don't have to worry about storm surge, but we have had local flooding with two hurricanes.
Elena sat off the west coast in 1985 for days dumping rain. Winds were no problem, 40-50 mph, but the flooding was extensive and it took weeks before the flooded roads and highways became usable. My house was high and dry.
Fast forward 19 years, and we were hit by Charley, Frances and Jeanne back-to-back-to-back, over a 6-week period. The eye missed us each time by 30-50 miles, but the winds were 100mph, and gusting higher. I drove around through each hurricane. One, Charley I think, caused considerable local flooding. Again, my house was high and dry.
Our house is reinforced concrete block, with brick. I don't know how the roof is tied down, but it was undamaged by any of the storms. We lost electricity each time for 2 weeks. Just as power was restored, the next hurricane knocked it out for another 2 weeks. So, 6-8 weeks without electricity. We ate at the local hospital cafeteria twice a day. Good food, cheap, and air conditioning. The cafeteria staff kept asking how my family member was doing. Some of my neighbors had extensive damage to their homes. Don't know why.
No hurricanes in the intervening 13 years.
I am expecting winds of maybe 100 mph tops again. Our new pagoda won't survive winds over 70mph, so I have written it off. Too bad -- it is (was) fantastic. I can bring the dining set, smoker, grill, serving stand, etc. inside the house. We have a pergola swing - I'll bring the swing inside. Otherwise, I don't have any concerns.
My wife has never experienced a hurricane, and wants to evacuate and head north. That is totally unnecessary, but I might not have a choice.
You are right - the path can, and probably will, change. On the morning it hit land, the eye of Charley was projected to go over my house. It wound up going over a friend's house in Wauchula, FL. The next day, I drove down to his house with my new generator. $100,000 damage to his house. A trailer park for migrants down the road with delapidated trailers was undamaged, while new CBS buildings were destroyed. Go figure. FEMA reimbursed my friend for my generator, and he repaid me. He still has it.
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Post by tigercpa on Sept 7, 2017 11:13:33 GMT
Take Irma and lay the points this weekend.
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Post by EvilVodka on Sept 7, 2017 13:57:58 GMT
They have POSTPONED the Tampa game at Miami. Are you kidding me? Irma is going pass Miami >150 mile offshore to the east. All they'll see in Miami on Sunday is a cool, dry north breeze. The NFL was saying yesterday they would move the game to a different location. Postponing the game SCREWS a bunch of fantasy owners... The fans will NOT be happy about this. Mark my words.... Sunday, in Miami sis going to beautiful weather. The forecast track has been wrong for days, and the weather service guys KNOW it. They are just trying to scare Floridians in to action. Now, what they've done is: Convince a bunch of people in south Florida to pack up and leave, driving north... right where the storm IS going to hit! Sheesh. I don't know why they don't try and play in a vacant stadium.... |
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Post by Bevo on Sept 7, 2017 15:41:56 GMT
we were hit by Charley, Frances and Jeanne back-to-back-to-back, over a 6-week period. I remember that year well. Funny thing was, it was the winter before that when Disney announced they were going to extend medical insurance to the "spouses" of gay people. Some TV evangelist made a bunch of noise by saying God was going to punish Disney for this. Within 9 months, three Hurricanes hit Florida, and there paths basically all crossed right over Disneyworld. Not saying it means anything... just one of those "coincidences" that I have always found interesting. :-) Irma's track is still concerning... I still think there's a good chance it will move east of Miami. The current NHC track is predicting a very slight westward bend BEFORE the big turn to the north. So far, that isn't happening. I have some doubt whether it will. The steering current they're relying on the Bermuda High, but.... it's not THAT strong, and Irma is pretty large. She doesn't seem to want to move from her current N-NW beeline. Of course, that is the concern. At SOME point, she has to turn, or you're going to have more trouble. I do think the North turn will happen. But, it's really anybody's guess as to when. SOONER, I hope... But, It's hard to say. Best of luck to you! Sounds like you have a great plan. Hope you can convince your wife. Riding them out at home is a LOT More fun than sitting hours in a car, or winding up in some cheaply built hotel room. |
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Post by Bevo on Sept 7, 2017 19:41:37 GMT
Just watching the Sat pics, I think the westward jog IS now happening... Irma is sort of hugging the island of Dom Rep. The friction is pulling the center down a little, and scooting it on a more westward vector.
Also looks to me as if the ridge in front of this storm is weakening a little... that means; a LATER turn is possible.. Not really great news for South Florida.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Sept 7, 2017 22:27:47 GMT
I follow the National Hurricane Center advisories, every 3 hours. The 2:00pm advisory (Thursday) had it tracking to the east of Miami, which is a good thing because the fury is greater east of the eye. However, the 5:00pm advisory showed it moving westward, and it now looks like Miami is in the crosshairs.
It was now projected to impact east Tennessee - it looks like somewhere around the Gatlinburg-Pigeon Forge area as a tropical storm.
At 2:00, I had a glimmer of hope of our pagoda surviving. That hope has since diminished. Other than that, barring further change westward, I don't think that we have much to worry about.
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Post by Hero on Sept 8, 2017 5:26:08 GMT
Florida is going to get hit hard.
Head for the hills.
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Post by Bevo on Sept 8, 2017 19:24:26 GMT
There have been a number of times in my life when I've heard weather people predicting a "North turn" that NEVER happened. The bigger the storm, the less they care about "steering factors"... As I feared yesterday, this "turn" is coming later than they first predicted, moving the path further westward. It might still go west a little bit more. Two days out, and still... really? They don't know.
Prayers for Florida!
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