Clemson - Miami Preview

In 2015, the Clemson Tigers were playing their best football in Week 8 when they demolished Miami 58-0. They already enjoyed their Week 4 bye and were healthy and sharp that day in South Florida. Towards the end of the season, the long grind began to take its toll on the Tigers, especially on D.

In their 9th game since the bye, they struggled to put away the Gamecocks. The following week, the defense looked tired against the Tar Heels, giving up 37 in an offense-led ACC Championship victory.

Right now, Miami finds itself in a similar situation. The Hurricanes disrupted the scheduled flow. Miami cancelled their week 2 road trip to Arkansas State and moved their week 3 game against Florida State to week 6, which was the original bye week for both Miami and FSU. As a result, the Canes have played 10 straight games. Unsurprisingly, they look tired. They look like they peaked in weeks 10 and 11 against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.

Last Friday, their offensive line got no push as they averaged only 2.0 yards per carry (45 yards) against Pittsburgh’s 75th ranked defense (S&P+). QB Malik Rosier looked terrible going 15/34.

Miami suffered killer injuries in the Pitt game - WR Ahmonn Richards, left the game in the closing minutes. He is averaging 18.7 yards per reception. TE Chris Herndon IV who has 37 receptions also left the game and will have season-ending knee surgery - an absolutely devastating blow for the Canes.

S&P+ metric, Success Rate, is useful in demonstrating this. It measures how often plays are successful (defined as 50% of to-go yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.) Clemson is very efficient and ranks 6th in this metric while Miami is less reliable and ranks 45th. Clemson has converted 46.4% of their third downs while Miami has only converted 30.7%. Only Kansas and Maryland rank worse than Miami on third down conversion percentage (among P5 teams).

Clemson/Miami Common Opponents

Virginia Tech Clemson : Road Win 31 - 17 Miami : Home Win 28-10 Notes : Both Clemson and Miami dominated VT

Syracuse Clemson : Road Loss 24-27 Miami : Home Win 27-19 Notes : Both struggled with Syracuse, but on the road on a short week with an injured QB, the Tigers lost while Miami eeked out a victory

Georgia Tech Clemson : Home Win 24-10 Miami : Home Win 25-24 Notes : Clemson was far more dominant. Miami won on a late pass that ricocheted off a helmet.

Florida State Clemson : Home Win 31-14 Miami : Road Win 24-20 Notes : FSU ran for 203 yards on Miami, but managed just 21 rushing yards against Clemson.

Ok... I'm convinced.

Tigers win. I'm betting the house! :-)

Clemson is a machine now...Their program is like Alabama. They are churning out all sorts of studs to the NFL. Mark Richt has Miami headed in the right direction, but they aren't there yet.

I expect a game very similar to the 31-0 thumping of Ohio State last year. The game will start off very slow as the teams feel each other out, but Clemson will get a couple of TDs and be up 14-0 at half.

Then I expect Miami to turn the ball over sometime, and before you know it, it will be 24-0 and the route will be on

If I am the Clemson defense, I don't see anyone on the Miami offense that scares me. If you take Barrios away, who do they beat you with?

I won't say this game is a lock, but I don't see a gameplan Miami can execute to beat Clemson