|
Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Mar 9, 2016 2:16:13 GMT
Is the bloom starting to come off the rose? In recent days, Trump's lead over Rubio in Florida has been cut in half, from 16% to 8%. Kasich has come out of nowhere in just the past two days to cut Trump's 28% lead to 12% (so far tonight).
Now this, from the just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll:
|
|
|
Post by Bevo on Mar 9, 2016 3:26:43 GMT
Problem is.... It's NOT a two man race
|
|
|
Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Mar 9, 2016 4:28:04 GMT
It might be after May 15.
|
|
|
Post by Hero on Mar 9, 2016 5:28:45 GMT
If Trump leads Rubio by 1 in Florida...Bad news for Rubio
|
|
|
Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Mar 9, 2016 10:59:16 GMT
If Trump leads Rubio by 1 in Florida...Bad news for Rubio The Death Knell. However, IMO, it would not be the end for Kasich if he loses Ohio by a point.
|
|
|
Post by GatorGrad on Mar 9, 2016 13:14:45 GMT
Fellow Gator Grad Marco Rubio had a rally a mile from my house last night so I checked it out. Pretty good crowd and good speech. Still leaning towards voting for Ted Cruz on Tuesday however.
|
|
|
Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Mar 9, 2016 14:29:50 GMT
Perhaps digging deep into the internals of polls will expose why Rubio's campaign is near collapse. I wouldn't be surprised, but I would be disappointed if it turns out to be Trump's incessant belittling of Rubio. Trump is incapable of debating Rubio on the issues because (1) he is an empty suit and (2) he is a typical schoolyard bully.
Trump appeals to the lowest common denominator. That is what populist campaigns are all about. The internals of polls consistently show that the lower a person's education level, the more likely he or she will be a Trump supporter.
My guess is that Rubio and Cruz impress you because you are well educated, and they have proved to be very smart and have a strong command of the issues. Am I right?
|
|
|
Post by Bevo on Mar 9, 2016 17:07:22 GMT
Perhaps digging deep into the internals of polls will expose why Rubio's campaign is near collapse. I wouldn't be surprised, but I would be disappointed if it turns out to be Trump's incessant belittling of Rubio. Trump is incapable of debating Rubio on the issues because (1) he is an empty suit and (2) he is a typical schoolyard bully. Trump appeals to the lowest common denominator. That is what populist campaigns are all about. The internals of polls consistently show that the lower a person's education level, the more likely he or she will be a Trump supporter. My guess is that Rubio and Cruz impress you because you are well educated, and they have proved to be very smart and have a strong command of the issues. Am I right?
IMO, Rubio killed himself by getting in the gutter with Trump. He completely ruined his image of being honorable, respectable and uplifting. He had a "Boy Scout" image going... then, he starts talking about Trump's "teenie weenie".... to quote my neighbor's daughter.... "Ewwww".
In addition, Rubio has a BUNCH of highly negative rumors floating around. Abundant evidence of at least one affair, including use of some public funds. Evidence of some shady financial deals... sweetheart loans, bad payment history, etc.... Those things may not make the evening news, but... they're "out there"... and they're credible. (or, at least believable). I think it's had some impact. But, mainly... the first point.
Trump offers a promise of "competence". He has been successful in life. He SAYS he smarter than all these politicians, and he sure seems to be.... based on his continued success in this race. He is, the choice of people who think Washington is SO BROKEN, it really doesn't matter anymore which "standard politician" gets elected, from either party. He's also the ANTI-Political Correctness candidate.... that's very appealing to many.
I think Trump is dangerous.... in several ways. And, I hope he is defeated. But, the others are running out of time. As long as there are three candidates, I think Trump will continue winning. HIS PEOPLE are locked in. He'll get 35-45% no matter how many people are running.
RUBIO needs to drop out now... before he gets embarrassed in Florida. Then, Cruz and Kasich need to make a deal... one on top and one as VP. I actually think that ticket works, either way. It would be a way to "Unite the Clans". But, they need to do this BEFORE March 15. One of them NEEDS to be AHEAD of Trump before the convention. That's the only way to prevent implosion.
|
|
|
Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Mar 9, 2016 19:38:02 GMT
You could be right on all counts, Bevo.
I wonder who is spreading the rumors about Rubio?
The latest I am hearing is a push for Rubio to drop out to become Cruz' VP. That would be a highly formidable team, even though totally lacking in diversity.
I like Kasich a lot, but I am having trouble picturing him as a future president.
|
|
|
Post by Hero on Mar 10, 2016 1:27:50 GMT
If Trump leads Rubio by 1 in Florida...Bad news for Rubio The Death Knell. However, IMO, it would not be the end for Kasich if he loses Ohio by a point. I agree AND agree with your statement a few days ago... Kasich is running for VP thus he needs all the bargaining chips he can get. The scenario where Trump can't get a first vote nomination could result in a Cruz/Kasich(or more precise TEXAS/OHIO) ticket. Rubio could negotiate his next job by stepping aside with a secret agreement(for delivering FLORIDA). Does Trump go rogue and possibly take NEW YORK with him? Maybe he decides to play nice and endorse Cruz and still deliver NEW YORK. Either way hurts Hillary. I can't imagine Hillary winning with loses in these four states.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
|
|
|
Post by EvilVodka on Mar 10, 2016 15:43:55 GMT
Rubio is surging! I think he won Puerto Rico the other night
|
|
|
Post by GatorGrad on Mar 10, 2016 16:52:23 GMT
Perhaps digging deep into the internals of polls will expose why Rubio's campaign is near collapse. I wouldn't be surprised, but I would be disappointed if it turns out to be Trump's incessant belittling of Rubio. Trump is incapable of debating Rubio on the issues because (1) he is an empty suit and (2) he is a typical schoolyard bully. Trump appeals to the lowest common denominator. That is what populist campaigns are all about. The internals of polls consistently show that the lower a person's education level, the more likely he or she will be a Trump supporter. My guess is that Rubio and Cruz impress you because you are well educated, and they have proved to be very smart and have a strong command of the issues. Am I right? Pretty much. Although I will admit that I was quite interested in Trump when he first announced that he would run. However my interest in him got lower and lower over time (comments about Fiorina's face, about John McCain, making fun of the handicapped guy, etc.) He finally lost me for good after not showing up to the Fox News Debate. I like both Rubio and Cruz but I give Cruz the edge for being non-establishment...plus I love his flat tax plan. Even if it would never happen, I would love to see someone try.
|
|
|
Post by tigercpa on Mar 10, 2016 22:48:41 GMT
Perhaps digging deep into the internals of polls will expose why Rubio's campaign is near collapse. I wouldn't be surprised, but I would be disappointed if it turns out to be Trump's incessant belittling of Rubio. Trump is incapable of debating Rubio on the issues because (1) he is an empty suit and (2) he is a typical schoolyard bully. Trump appeals to the lowest common denominator. That is what populist campaigns are all about. The internals of polls consistently show that the lower a person's education level, the more likely he or she will be a Trump supporter. My guess is that Rubio and Cruz impress you because you are well educated, and they have proved to be very smart and have a strong command of the issues. Am I right?
IMO, Rubio killed himself by getting in the gutter with Trump. He completely ruined his image of being honorable, respectable and uplifting. He had a "Boy Scout" image going... then, he starts talking about Trump's "teenie weenie".... to quote my neighbor's daughter.... "Ewwww".
In addition, Rubio has a BUNCH of highly negative rumors floating around. Abundant evidence of at least one affair, including use of some public funds. Evidence of some shady financial deals... sweetheart loans, bad payment history, etc.... Those things may not make the evening news, but... they're "out there"... and they're credible. (or, at least believable). I think it's had some impact. But, mainly... the first point.
Trump offers a promise of "competence". He has been successful in life. He SAYS he smarter than all these politicians, and he sure seems to be.... based on his continued success in this race. He is, the choice of people who think Washington is SO BROKEN, it really doesn't matter anymore which "standard politician" gets elected, from either party. He's also the ANTI-Political Correctness candidate.... that's very appealing to many.
I think Trump is dangerous.... in several ways. And, I hope he is defeated. But, the others are running out of time. As long as there are three candidates, I think Trump will continue winning. HIS PEOPLE are locked in. He'll get 35-45% no matter how many people are running.
RUBIO needs to drop out now... before he gets embarrassed in Florida. Then, Cruz and Kasich need to make a deal... one on top and one as VP. I actually think that ticket works, either way. It would be a way to "Unite the Clans". But, they need to do this BEFORE March 15. One of them NEEDS to be AHEAD of Trump before the convention. That's the only way to prevent implosion.
Rubio would be hard pressed to win re-election in Florida. Many of the 5mm people who voted for him feel betrayed. It's a level of trust you cant recover from.
Spoke to aco-worker at dinner Tuesday night in NYC, she was a former FLA resident. She voted for Rubio backin the day, but said he missed wa too many votes and was a sellout. Never again, she said.
|
|
|
Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Mar 10, 2016 23:12:11 GMT
Every sitting U.S. senator who has engaged in a serious campaign for president, including JFK, has, out of necessity, had to miss a substantial number of votes.
Every sitting governor who has engaged in a serious campaign for president, including Kasich and Cristie, has, out of necessity, had to leave the state for extended periods of time.
Chris Cristie stayed on the campaign trail during a weather related crisis in New Jersey. That is reprehensible, but he pretty much got away with it.
It would be equally reprehensible if Kasich failed to go back to Ohio in the event of a crisis, but that hasn't happened.
It would also be equally reprehensible if Rubio missed a critical vote, where his vote would have made a difference. But, that hasn't happened.
|
|
|
Post by Hero on Mar 10, 2016 23:14:34 GMT
Rubio is surging! I think he won Puerto Rico the other night I LOVE IT! too funny
|
|