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Post by doc on Nov 1, 2017 15:32:11 GMT
No way they make it over a 12-1 conference champion or Georgia should they slip up in the SEC championship game. And just to illustrate what I mean, here's a comparison of Ohio State vs Notre Dame....
Ohio State wins (should they win out, records projected)
Wisconsin 12-1 Penn State 11-1 Michigan 8-4 Michigan State 8-4 Iowa 8-4 Army 8-4 Maryland 6-6 UNLV 6-6 Rutgers 5-7 Indiana 5-7 Nebraska 5-7 Illinois 3-9
Notre Dame (should they win out, records projected)
Miami (Fla) 10-2 USC 9-3 NC State 9-3 Stanford 8-4 Michigan State 8-4 Navy 8-4 BC 7-5 Wake Forest 6-6 Miami (OH) 5-7 Temple 4-8 UNC 1-11
Ohio State would have the two best wins. Michigan and Stanford are about equal. MSU is MSU. Is BC better than Iowa? Army beat Navy last year. Wake vs Maryland? The bottom doesn't matter but I'd take Indiana over Miami and Nebraska over Temple. Illinois and UNC are both horrible and non-factors. I keep hearing how ND's schedule is so great and I don't see it. It would be TCU all over again and quite frankly, it couldn't happen to a better fan base!
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Post by EvilVodka on Nov 1, 2017 19:46:59 GMT
I think Notre Dame would get in over Georgia, especially if Notre Dame put down some points on Stanford. I don't see how the SEC Championship loser has much argument. I'm not a fan of "backing in" to a playoff, especially a limited playoff like the one we have
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Post by doc on Nov 1, 2017 20:10:25 GMT
Georgia at 12-1 with a win over Notre Dame at 11-1 - I'm not so sure. I don't think either would get in if Ohio State, Oklahoma and Clemson all win out.
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Post by Bevo on Nov 1, 2017 22:34:41 GMT
We'll see.... I think it's far too early to be playing the "what if" game. We have a LOT of football to play
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Post by ajbuckeye on Nov 2, 2017 0:14:00 GMT
Georgia at 12-1 with a win over Notre Dame at 11-1 - I'm not so sure. I don't think either would get in if Ohio State, Oklahoma and Clemson all win out. The committee has Conference Champs listed as a high end criteria which ND will not have. Only way a 1 loss team that is not a conference champ gets in is if we have 2 loss conference champs. That was the only way tOSU made last year. At the moment Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Miami, and Wisconsin control there destiny's Washington, ND, and VT., TCU, and OK St will need to duke it out if teams above them lay an egg
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Post by doc on Nov 2, 2017 13:18:06 GMT
We'll see.... I think it's far too early to be playing the "what if" game. We have a LOT of football to play That is the key - and I highly doubt all these teams will win out.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Nov 4, 2017 9:28:34 GMT
Invariably, it comes down to comparing schedules, rather than how teams perform relative to their schedules.
Nearly everyone does it, and it is flawed. I would be a wealthy man if I had a nickel for every time I have seen or heard someone say, “Yeah, but look at who they’ve played.”
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Nov 9, 2017 16:37:55 GMT
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Post by Bevo on Nov 9, 2017 16:41:17 GMT
Oops! We are really sorry, but the page you requested cannot be found
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Post by Bevo on Nov 9, 2017 16:56:30 GMT
Despite your incompetence at posting a link, I found the story. I'm sympathetic to their point about the lack of respect. But, they are factually oncorrect about the SOS of UCF being the same as Wisconsin. It's not. It's significantly weaker. It's a real shame UCF's game against Geo Tech got cancelled. Missing a game, especially one of their very rare P5 games, is really hurting their resume. It will keep them from have any shot at all. So, perhaps the CFP committee is doing them a favor now by signaling that they have NO chance. Because, truly... they don't.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 9, 2017 17:20:35 GMT
UCF should be higher, but their schedule is somewhat weaker than Whisky's. All 0-0 records at the start of the season are NOT equal. FSu is facing bowl ineligibility, so they need that missed game from the hurricane. just like UCF needs that GT game.
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Post by Bevo on Nov 9, 2017 19:01:21 GMT
I will say this: If UCF and GT were playing this weekend, I think UCF would be favored by 7 or more.
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Post by tigercpa on Nov 9, 2017 20:11:21 GMT
I will say this: If UCF and GT were playing this weekend, I think UCF would be favored by 7 or more. Seems reasonable Game in ATL, UCF would be around -1 / pick Game @ UCF, UCF would be around -5 Originally scheduled, line was GT -3.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Nov 9, 2017 23:11:18 GMT
Despite your incompetence at posting a link, I found the story. Despite your incompetence at spelling, I was able to figure out that you meant “incorrect”. www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/open-mike/os-sp-ucf-college-football-ranking-mike-bianchi-1109-story.htmlThe greater point is that the CFP effectively locks out all G5 conference teams before the season even begins by prohibiting consideration of MOV. UCF’s MOV relative to its schedule unquestionably puts it in the top tier. Another consideration is that no championship, whether mythical or NCAA sanctioned, can be considered valid as long as one or more undefeated teams is not permitted to compete for the championship by the governing body.
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Post by FLORIDA HERD FAN on Nov 9, 2017 23:27:26 GMT
The updated F/+ rankings were released this afternoon. UCF is #5 in the combined rankings. It is #5 in the S&P+, ahead of Notre Dame, and #7 in the FEI, ahead of Alabama and Ohio State. On a neutral field, the S&P+ projects that UCF would be a 1-point underdog to Georgia, a 2.5-point favorite over Notre Dame, a 3-point underdog to Alabama and a 1.5-point underdog to Ohio State. Clearly, UCF belongs in the conversation. www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
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